It’s about to join the Alberta Advantage as one of the province’s biggest selling points.

No one’s calling it the “one-million advantage” yet, but both Edmonton and Calgary are set to capitalize on their rising populations.

In less than 100 days, the Greater Edmonton region will join Greater Calgary as metropolitan areas with populations of at least one million people.

Calgary hit the mark quietly a few years earlier, and before the decade is out hopes to reach the one-million level for the city proper. Based on current population trends, the City of Edmonton won’t reach one million inhabitants until 2034.

File photo by Dan Riedlhuber, Business Edge
Edmonton Economic Development Corp. CEO Allan Scott on the promotion trail.

“Many national and international companies, as well as potential investors, regularly underestimate the size and importance of our local market,” says Allan Scott, president and CEO of Edmonton Economic Development Corp. (EEDC).

“Consequently, we’re launching an 100-day awareness campaign so that Greater Edmonton is better recognized as a tier-one Canadian market for business and investment, as well as a cosmopolitan tourist destination.”

The population of Edmonton’s Census Metropolitan Area – which encompasses the city, its neighbouring municipalities and the four surrounding counties – is forecast to be 999,769 by Dec. 31, according to the City of Edmonton’s Planning and Development Department.

In Calgary – one of the fastest- growing economic regions in the country over the last decade, according to Calgary Economic Development (CED) – little fanfare was made when it hit the milestone.

“It’s a bit like getting another year older, it comes and goes and you don’t really notice it,” says Bruce Graham, CED’s president and CEO.

“From a marketing standpoint, however, the Calgary region has been able to boast a population of a million for a number of years. What that signifies is critical mass in terms of business, diversity, a larger labour pool and urban sophistication.”

For symbolic purposes, as no one can verify exactly when the Edmonton region will register it’s one-millionth resident, EEDC is targeting Jan. 1, 2005, as the day in question.

“Overall, it just demonstrates that this is not a small city anymore,” says EEDC spokesman Jim Rudolph.

“Edmonton is now a major metropolitan area in Canada and if you look at us economically, we certainly are a powerhouse.”

He points to the addition of 100,000 jobs since 1996, a strong biotech sector and a role to play as the gateway to the North and the oilsands.

“Reaching one million brings more respect from a business perspective,” adds Rudolph. “It makes potential investors and site locators who look at the Edmonton market to see this as a place where they can do business.”

Calgary expects to cross the million population threshold by the end of 2008. As of 2003, it had 922,000 residents.

Those numbers, and those being reported in Edmonton, also indicate a shifting economic base in Canada, says Frank Atkins, an economics professor at the University of Calgary.

“The provinces in Central Canada are finally realizing that the economic power is shifting to the West,” says Atkins.

“It’s good for the Canadian economy, too. Now we have a new economic base out here.”

This shift, adds Atkins, is one reason why head offices are choosing to locate in Calgary. “It’s the new up-and-coming place to be.”

The most recent example of that is the announcement last week from Imperial Oil Ltd. that it will move its head office from Toronto to Calgary.

“This move will enable Imperial to strengthen its focus on the major opportunities for the company and help meet Canada’s growing energy needs,” Imperial Oil president and CEO Tim Hearn said in a statement.

“In addition, having our corporate offices in one location will assist with overall organizational effectiveness.”

The move will see as many as 500 Imperial Oil staff coming to Calgary. Detailed planning is now under way and the changeover is expected to be completed by August 2005.

Along with growth comes extra demand on infrastructure.

“Certainly, there are challenges but when it comes down to it, this is a nice problem to have,” says Sherri Little, manager of communications for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

“We would rather have growing pains in the city than no growth at all.”

Andy Harrell, an experimental social psychologist who heads the University of Alberta’s Population Research Lab, is also a proponent of growth.

Speaking from personal experience by drawing on his demographic knowledge, Harrell says any prudent businessperson would look at the demographic profile of a city before making a decision to move there, and notes that Calgary and Edmonton have very attractive demographic profiles.

But Harrell isn’t worried about the need for increased services that come with growth.

“The problems that people wring their hands over will be solved by the mere presence of more people,” he says. “They’re going to demand it, business is going to demand it and if the politicians don’t respond, hopefully they’ll be voted out.”

Given the resources Alberta has, “we’ve got the money to accommodate many more people if we choose to spend it in that way” to create an even larger critical mass, Harrell adds.

The growth will keep going and the infrastructure work will get done eventually, agrees the U of C’s Atkins.

“The only thing that would stop the growth in Alberta is some kind of cataclysmic collapse in the price of oil down below $20 a barrel, permanently, and I don’t see that happening, ” says Atkins.

While politicians should have seen the approaching million-mark coming years ago and moved to respond to infrastructure requirements earlier, he says, “maybe the one-million mark will spur them to do something.”

For Paul Byrne, chairman of the board of directors at the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, growth also brings challenges. “Obviously, it puts a bit of a burden on our infrastructure, particularly in the transportation sector,” he says.

“We will see challenges in bringing that infrastructure to what is needed to operate an urban area of one million-plus and we’re not quite there yet.”

But there are also numerous positives to a climbing population, says Byrne.

“The one-million level does have a cachet to it that will help us in three areas. Certainly, it will help us on the global trade scene,” he says. “Second, it shows to the rest of Canada that Edmonton is growing, that it’s vibrant and a good place for companies to do business.

“Thirdly, it’s great news for the businesses that have been here for a long time because it shows strength in the marketplace and opportunity for business expansion and future growth.”

It’s not just the statistical representation that’s important, adds Byrne, it’s the sense that goes along with being a major centre and being treated accordingly.

“It’s something Albertans and those in the 22 municipalities that make up our Greater Edmonton region need to be very proud of, and together with the southern hub of Calgary we create a powerful and significant market for businesses in Canada and North America,” says Byrne.

“It gives Alberta a one- two punch and a stronger ability to play a major role on the national and international stage.”

(Laura Severs can be reached at laura@businessedge.ca)