Despite B.C.'s strong economy, British Columbians are moving east over the Rockies to Alberta more often than Albertans are relocating to the West Coast, says a recent Business Council of British Columbia (BCBC) report.
In the second half of last year, 3,000 more people moved to Alberta from B.C. than those who came the other way. As a result, in the final quarter of 2005, B.C. recorded a net outflow of 869 people to other provinces, including Alberta.
That marks the first period in three years that more people have left than entered B.C., says Ken Peacock, a BCBC senior policy analyst who worked on the report.
"It really was only Alberta that dragged us down," says Peacock. "It really is a story about the lure of Alberta."
The negative migration contrasts sharply with early 2005, when B.C. enjoyed a net inflow of 2,000 people per quarter from all parts of Canada. In the first half of 2005, migration between B.C. and Alberta was balanced.
The report attributes the sudden shift to "the Alberta factor.”
B.C. wasn't the only province that lost workers to Alberta. In the fourth quarter of 2005, the Wild Rose province experienced a net inflow of more than 17,000 from all regions of Canada.
Peacock says it's difficult to confirm who exactly is leaving B.C., but anecdotal evidence and past trends indicate the departees are mainly young skilled trades workers aged 25-35. Unlike in the early 1990s, when a bad economy pushed people out of B.C., Alberta firms are pulling people east with high wages and signing bonuses.
Peacock says most workers are heading to northern Alberta's booming oilpatch. He has heard of some firms who have provided signing bonuses in the $20,000-$25,000 range.
"Many analysts anticipate that net interprovincial migration will be an important source of new workers (in B.C.) in the coming years," says the report. "Yet it may be that the even hotter Albertan economy will continue to be a powerful lure for significant numbers of young British Columbians. While a single quarter should not be extrapolated into a trend, the recent shift in migration flows underscores the fact that B.C. cannot necessarily count on rising interprovincial migration as a source of skilled workers in the future."
Peak says the decline in Albertans moving west will put "upward pressure" on wages in B.C., and the provincial government may want to see how its tax rates compare to those in Alberta.
But he notes there are relatively small gaps in the two western provinces' personal income, corporate and small business tax schemes.
"Tax rates are one factor but there's also job opportunities, employment prospects and overall economic health," says Peacock, adding people also move for many other personal reasons.
But he says the provincial Liberals and private companies don't necessarily need to take immediate steps to keep employees in B.C., because the downturn in migration is not a "panic" situation.
"It's part of the normal function of the labour market. It's kind of what you want labour marketing to do," says Peacock referring to people's tendency to move to areas where jobs are plentiful during good economic times and relocate during slowdowns.
He points out that B.C. still attracted 3,500 people from Alberta last year, although the net migration was in Alberta's favour.
"It's not like people are moving to Alberta and have stopped coming to B.C.," he says.
Despite losing workers to its nearest neighbour, B.C. inflow exceeded outflow to all other provinces between September and December of last year. B.C. attracted 1,000 more residents than it lost from Ontario, and enjoyed a net inflow of 1,000 people from all other parts of Canada outside of Alberta.
Peacock says B.C. has been winning the war for skilled workers with Ontario since 2001, and that pattern shows no sign of changing.
But the B.C. Progress Board, a provincially appointment panel that advises the government on economic performance issues, cites the lack of young workers as a key factor in B.C.'s lagging productivity. It is also calling for changes in B.C. tax policy, regulatory reform, the elimination of trade barriers, more openness towards immigration and an emphasis on public infrastructure, skills, education and research.
By 2011, the board forecasts, the number of retirees leaving the B.C. workforce will exceed the number of people under the age of 30 who are entering it.
However, some smaller B.C. communities are already struggling to find personnel of any age. In Kamloops, a customer-call centre company has launched a campaign to recruit retired seniors because it can't find enough employees.
Convergys Customer Management Canada is offering medical, dental and other benefits to snowbirds who like to head south for the winter.
Once they pass a three-month probation, if they take extended breaks to travel or pursue other interests, they are guaranteed of being able to return to positions that pay between $9.05 and $11 per hour.
"I'm looking at hiring between 300-400 people," says Jill Jones, the company's Kamloops recruiting manager.
Noting that seniors have better customer-relations skills than younger employees, Jones says Convergys hopes to give retirees lifestyle-based incentives while providing benefits that are not covered in pensions. If its pilot project is successful, U.S.-based Convergys will recruit seniors for the rest of its 14 call centres across Canada.
She says all industries in Kamloops and rival call-centre companies in Penticton, Vernon and other B.C. locales are having similar problems attracting workers.
Alyn Edwards, vice-president of Peak Communicators Ltd., whose Vancouver-based communications firm has been hired to help promote business and job opportunities in Kamloops, says the lack of available employees is restricting the area's economic development and growth.
"If you (move) to Kamloops and you're able-bodied and you've got a pulse, you can get a job," says Edwards.
According to a website operated by Venture Kamloops, the municipal government's economic development branch, economic growth has not kept pace with population growth. The city's economy surged briefly in the early 1990s, thanks to a spate of new-home construction, but most of the buyers were local residents who just upgraded to newer homes.
Since 2001, the city's population has expanded to 84,000 from 77,000 after remaining flat between 1996 and 2001. The lumber industry remains the top employer in Kamloops, and the city, home of the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League, bills itself as "the Tournament Capital of Canada."
The area has also become a haven for high-tech companies, and the new Thompson Rivers University (TRU) has also sparked more labour demand.
Edwards says TRU alone has 100 job openings, because only 50 of 150 employees from the Open Learning Institute chose to move to Kamloops after the institute left its former Burnaby location and relocated to the university campus.
Venture Kamloops has launched an economic-diversification strategy designed to lure employees and companies from all parts of Canada - including Alberta.
(Monte Stewart can be reached at monte@businessedge.ca)
