Calgary’s economic growth has slowed somewhat this year, but is on pace to post the highest numbers in the country from 2003-2006.
Its solid performance will be nearly matched by Edmonton, which will experience consistently healthy economic growth over the same period, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s latest Metropolitan Outlook.
Consumer spending and housing starts are credited with buoying both municipal economies.
“Thanks to strong consumption activity, Edmonton’s economy did well during the recent roller-coaster ride of the energy markets,” said Mario Lefebvre, associate director, Metropolitan Outlook. “Excluding the primary sector, real economic activity grew by a healthy 5.1 per cent. Moreover, it showed no sign of fatigue in the first half of 2002.”
Weakness in the primary sector will limit growth somewhat in Calgary’s goods- producing sector this year, he said. However, the city will reap the benefits of strong consumption activity and a housing boom, he added.
Lower oil and natural gas prices in 2001 led to back-to-back declines in employment in Calgary for the first two quarters of 2002. But consumer spending and construction are helping sustain growth of 3.2 per cent in 2002.
Given a rebound in the energy sector and strong domestic demand, the Outlook forecasts that Calgary will post an average growth rate of 3.8 per cent per year over the next four years, tops in Canada. Edmonton will post growth rates of 3.4 per cent in 2002 and 4.1 per cent in 2003; growth is expected to average 3.4 per cent per year over the next four years.
Elsewhere in Canada this year, Saint John will lead all cities with 4.3-per-cent growth, while Toronto, Quebec City, Windsor and Montreal will post economic growth at or near four per cent, said the report.
The Metropolitan Outlook, produced three times a year, provides economic insights into 25 census metropolitan areas, their related province and Canada. The Conference Board of Canada is an independent, not-for-profit applied research organization.
