(Every week, Business Edge writer Gyle Konotopetz profiles the top three stock picks of one of Canada’s most successful investment pros.)

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Joe Hamilton, mining analyst, Dundee Securities (www.dundeesecurities.com)

Hamilton’s Current Strategy: “With the current state of the economic outlook in the U.S., most of it trending downwards and the economy not looking like it’s going to have a quick recovery, we expect the gold price (recently in the $275 US range) is going to perform rather well in the first six months of next year.

"It’s difficult to say how high it will go because there’s always selling by central banks that tend to keep the spot price down. Traditionally, if the spot price goes up 10 per cent, the stocks go up 30 per cent. I also anticipate about a 10-per-cent weakening of the U.S. dollar which usually corresponds to something like a five- to 10-per-cent increase in the spot price of gold. I believe anything in the gold sector is a trading stock. History has shown that if you hold gold stocks for two or three years, you’re probably going to only break even.”

First Star * Barrick Gold (ABX-TSE)

* Recent Price: $23.78.

* Year Range: $21.10-$29.65.

* Hamilton’s Call: Buy.

* 12-Month Target: $27.

* Snapshot: Barrick is involved in the acquisition, exploration and development of precious-metals properties in North and South America and Tanzania. It’s in the midst of a merger with Homestake Mining that would make it the world’s second-largest gold producer.

* CEO: Randall Oliphant.

* Head Office: Toronto (4,300 employees).

* Vital Stats: Losses (last 12 mos), $1.2 billion; Revenue (last 12 mos), $2.0 billion; 5-yr Growth, 2.6%; Market Cap, $9.43 billion; Shares Outstanding, 396.45 million; Dividend Yield, 1.45%.

* Hamilton’s Comment: “Barrick’s large, it’s liquid and a very solid company.”

* Hamilton’s Risk Rating: Low.

* Web watch: www.barrick.com

Second Star

* Meridian Gold (MNG-TSE)

* Recent Price: $15.55.

* Year Range: $8.45-$18.59.

* Hamilton’s Call: Accumulate (pick your entry point).

* 12-Month Target: $15 (Although the stock is trading higher than the official target price, Hamilton qualifies the inclusion of Meridian as a top pick based on the company’s exploration potential in the year, which he believes could drastically impact the resource estimate. He also suggests buying the stock, if possible, at $15 or lower).

* Snapshot: Meridian is a growth gold business with three properties in North and South America.

* CEO: Brian Kennedy.

* Head Office: Reno, Nev. (380 employees).

* Vital Stats: Price/Earnings Ratio, 19.9; Revenue (last 12 mos), $174.0 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 12.2%; Earnings (last 12 mos), $58.9 million; Market Cap, $1.18 billion; Shares Outstanding, 75.88 million.

* Hamilton’s Comment: “We like Meridian mainly on the basis of exploration potential at one of their operating mines. We expect that there should be some good exploration news and possibly reserve estimates to come out in the next six to 12 months. Our $15 target is based on the current resource base.”

* Risk Rating: Medium.

* Web watch: www.meridiangold.com

Third Star

* Kinross Gold (K-TSE)

* Recent Price: $1.05.

* Year Range: 0.66-$1.73.

* Hamilton’s Call: Buy.

* 12-Month Target: $1.50.

* Snapshot: Kinross is a gold producer with three flagship mines – in Alaska, Ontario and the Russian Far East.

* CEO: Robert Buchan.

* Head Office: Toronto (2,691 employees).

* Vital Stats: Loss (last 12 mos), $172.7 million; Revenue (last 12 mos), $409.4 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 11.6%; Market Cap, $344.55 million; Shares Outstanding, 328.15 million.

* Hamilton’s Comment: “For the absolute maximum leverage for gold-price momentum, I have to go with Kinross. It probably has the largest leverage to gold price of any stock, mainly because of balance-sheet burden and low margins. Of course, that works both ways. It’s a double-edged sword. It’s a good trading stock because it’s liquid.”
* Hamilton’s Risk Rating: High.
* Web watch: www.kinross.com

* Disclosure: Hamilton says he does not personally own the stocks. Dundee has acted in flow-through financing for Kinross in the past year.