(Every week, Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz profiles the top three stock picks of one of Canada’s most accomplished investment pros.)

FEATURED PRO: Andrew Boland is the small-cap oil and gas analyst for Calgary-based Peters & Company, a Calgary investment firm with more than 30 years’ experience in the oilpatch (www.petersco.com).

Boland’s Perspective: “I think 2004 will be a bit of a down year with oil reserves heading towards normal levels and gas storage full. So unless you’re a good weatherman able to predict the coldest winter on record, I think we’ll see some price weakness for natural gas in the first half of 2004.

“I expect some softening in the market going into 2004, but I don’t see commodity prices cratering as long as there are geopolitical events driving prices. There is so much uncertainty on the supply side of oil.”

Peters & Company Commodities Forecast: Crude oil – $26 US per barrel; natural gas – $4.50 US NYMEX.



FIRST STAR
* Great Northern Exploration (GNL-TSX)
* Recent Price: $4.25.
* 52-Week Range: $2.15-$4.95
* Peters & Co. Rating: Sector Outperform.
* Boland’s 12-Month Target: $5.75.
* Snapshot: Great Northern is an oil and gas company focused on grass-roots exploration, strategic acquisitions and subsequent exploitation primarily in Alberta.
* CEO: Jim Saunders.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 20.2; 2002 Revenue, $12.17 million; 2002 Earnings, $1.79 million; Market Cap, $162.84 million; Shares Outstanding, 38.31 million.
* Boland’s View: “This company has a nice balance in its drilling inventory over the next year and it has a history of capital discipline and profitable growth. They’re about 60 per cent weighted toward natural gas.”
* Boland’s Risk Rating: Medium.



SECOND STAR
* Kinloch Energy (KTE-TSX)
* Recent Price: $1.50.
* 52-Week Range: $1.12-$1.72.
* Peters & Co. Rating: Sector Outperform.
* Boland’s 12-Month Target: $2.25.
* Snapshot: Kinloch is an oil and gas company formed from the acquisition of Nu-Sky Energy earlier this year. The company’s growth strategy is based on acquisitions and drilling.
* CEO: Paul Read.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 8.0; Revenue (last 12 mo.), $65.3 million; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mo.), $6.7 million Loss; Market Cap, $27.75 million; Shares Outstanding, 18.5 million.
* Boland’s View: “This is a play on the management in the company, based on their track record for technical and financial expertise. The vice-president of exploration (Stephen Farner) is a key and the company is focused on natural gas.”
* Boland’s Risk Rating: High.
* Web Watch: www.kinlochresources.com



THIRD STAR
* Tempest Energy (TMY.A-TSX)
* Recent Price: $5.25.
* 52-Week Range: $3.70-$6.13.
* Peters & Co. Rating: Sector Outperform.
* Boland’s 12-Month Target: $7.
* Snapshot: Tempest is an oil and gas company focused in two core areas in northern and central Alberta. It boasts 189,000 gross acres of undeveloped land.
* CEO: Scott Dawson.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 17.5; Revenue (last 12 mo.), 26.8 million; Earnings (last 12 mo.), $4.3 million; Market Cap, $78.58 million; Shares Outstanding, 14.97 million.
* Boland’s View: “This company is focused on light oil and natural gas in northern Alberta where there is higher risk because of the technical and operational risks associated with operating in the north. They also have lower-risk properties in central Alberta.
“Their big acreage positions and option acreage positions in the north provide a great growth opportunity.”
* Boland’s Risk Rating: Medium to high.
* Web Watch: www.tempestenergy.com

Boland’s Edge Record: +92.3%. Best Pick: TriQuest Energy (TRI-TSX) +252.9%. Worst Pick: Storm Energy (SME-TSX) +19.8% (at time of reorganization).

Disclosure: Boland personally owns shares in Kinloch Energy and his firm, Peters & Company, has been involved in financing for all three companies.