Canada has a new tool that will help ensure there are the right number of skilled tradespeople in the right trades.

The information is in the Construction Sector Council's recently released sector-by'-sector, province-by-province construction labour-market forecasts, which will now be updated annually.

"We've now got the information, we've got the intelligence that allows us to prepare our training institutions and our policymakers, and now people know what potential careers in construction are out there and what's coming," says George Gritziotis, the Ottawa-based council's executive director.

"We have developed a tool that allows us to better target our initiatives when we're trying to address the supply-side issues that our industry is faced with," Gritziotis says.

George Gritziotis

If there is a shortage in a particular region and a particular trade, the forecasts mean industry and government will know it. They will also know they need to develop career awareness and training programs for that particular trade.

"That's opposed to the past when we may have developed supply-side initiatives, like career awareness, in the absence of information of where those shortages are or where the hotspots are in the country," Gritziotis notes.

Developed over the last two years with the help of industry and other regional and national interest groups, the forecast - which includes a national summary and provincial breakdowns - provides labour market and economic intelligence for all 10 provinces.

This allows each province and its municipalities to work co-operatively to predict labour shortages and surpluses in the long and short term.

Formed in 2001 to ensure Canada's construction industry has the skilled workforce it needs, the sector council surveyed major employers who run large construction projects and asked them about their skilled-trades labour needs over the next three to four years.

That information was supplemented with data from economic forecasts that detailed housing projects, and school, mall and institutional construction.

It is hoped the information will help provincial governments build better training strategies, policies and programs to ensure the right trades are being promoted and beefed up. It will also help specific regions do their own planning while not working in isolation.

The forecast is now in the hands of committees in each province, which are breaking down its information to make it relevant to their jurisdictions.

For example, information provided for the forecast revealed that more than $40 billion in oilsands development is expected to take place in Fort McMurray, Alta., between 2004 and 2013.

"If we have good information up there, we can start targeting our efforts," Gritziotis says.

Other jurisdictions can also plan for the drain the projects may create for their skilled trades base. "If the wages are there, which by all accounts they are, workers will be going to Fort McMurray and that could have a huge impact on other major construction projects across Canada," Gritziotis says.

There are concerns the magnetic pull on workers toward Fort McMurray could affect the ability of other provinces to upgrade such things as their electricity generating facilities or for the 2010 Winter Olympics venue at Whistler to be completed on time.

In Ontario, there was a 12-per-cent increase in construction employment between 2001 and 2004 and an additional nine-per-cent increase is expected between 2004 and 2008. An increase of five per cent is expected between 2008 and 2013, according to the forecast.

Nationally, construction employment increased by 18 per cent between 2001 and 2004 and is expected to grow by nine per cent between 2004 and 2008. From 2008 to 2013, the forecast foresees a zero-per- cent change.

The national forecast also says residential construction investment is expected to decline in the medium term as interest rates rise and household growth slows, but is expected to cycle up somewhat in the long term in response to the increased immigration needed to meet Canada's employment requirements.

Non-residential construction is expected to grow in the medium and long term. The expectation is that tradespeople who build houses, such as carpenters, cabinetmakers and bricklayers, will drop in demand, while boilermakers, welders and crane operators will find themselves in greater demand.

In Ontario, non-residential construction will be strong between 2004 and 2008 although housing will be flat. Between 2008 and 2013 there will be a moderate recovery in all sectors, the forecast says.

Ron Martin, executive director of the Sudbury Construction Association and a member of the steering committee that helped launch the study, says the annual forecasts will be particularly helpful to Sudbury.

"It's important to our area because we are one of the areas in the province where there has been an outflow of the population in the last 20 years - particularly youth," Martin says, adding that the situation is not helped by the fact that tradespeople tend to move around.

Like most other communities, Sudbury is trying to attract industrial investors and it is easier to attract and keep them in a community if there is a local skilled construction workforce.

"When a large industrial buyer has to bring workers from Alberta the costs go up significantly," Martin says.

Taking stock of the local, provincial and national supply of skilled tradespeople and predicting future labour requirements is essential, he says, considering that many of Canada's tradespeople are Baby Boomers and approaching retirement. As well, economies are improving across Canada and it can take five years to train a skilled worker.

"Our industry is aging like a lot of industries are and it's important for us to get ahead of the curve in terms of knowing what our demand for labour is going to be down the road," Martin says. "It's not a tap you can just turn on and turn off."

Martin says the initial forecast did not reveal any surprises for the construction industry in Ontario.

However, he expects next year's forecast will be much more useful than the current one because the information will be further broken down into regional jurisdictions.

"In Ontario that's quite important because there's quite a difference in economy in the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) versus eastern Ontario versus the north versus the west, and certain parts of those areas are interdependent," Martin says.

(Frank Armstrong can be reached at armstrong@businessedge.ca)