Our star of star analysts is Andrew Boland, the Calgary oil and gas guru whose picks for the column six months ago are up a whopping 79 per cent.

Boland’s Triple Crown? Ketch Energy (KCH-TSE), which is up 114 per cent; BXL Energy (BXL-TSE), up 77 per cent; and Ionic Energy, which was up 43 per cent when the company was taken over.

Boland projects energy prices will dip in the next year, but not severely. “I expect the natural-gas price (currently $3.79 US per thousand cubic feet, Mcf) to firm up again coming into this winter after a weak summer and, in a year to 18 months, I see natural gas somewhere in the $3-$3.50 (US) range,” says Boland, analyst with Peters & Co.

“On the oil side, I think we’re going to see a bit of a slow fade to the $25 range (recently $28.33) this time next year, and 18 months out from now I think we’re going to slowly evolve to a more normalized price environment, which might be in the $20-25 (US) range.”



Boland also anticipates the wild oilpatch takeover action to cool. “The forward strip on commodity prices has weakened and, as a result, it doesn’t make it easy for the buyer to come in and use the futures market to justify the premium evaluations he has put on the stock,” says Boland. “We’re going to see other names disappear over the next few months but I think maybe the pace will slow down a little until the commodities prices futures strip looks a little stronger.”

For Boland’s latest picks, check out the PRO’S THREE STARS below.

TOP TEN LIST: Here are 10 red flags that should set off the sell alarm on a stock.

(10) The stock came highly recommended — by a cab driver.

(9) The stock shows weekly trading volume of 500 shares for a week at a price of three cents — $15 worth.

(8) You check out a chat-board thread on the company and note that none of the scribblers can spell.

(7) The company trumpets itself as a dot-com with cutting-edge technology but it has no Web site. It does have a telephone number though — DOT-BOMB.

(6) You stake out the joint and observe the CEO arriving at work by bus sporting a fake moustache and dark glasses.

(5) You check the website and find that the company hasn’t issued a news release in nine years.

(4) The company changes its name and consolidates its stock price, citing “market conditions.”

(3) You visit the company and the receptionist is perusing the Job Ads.

(2) You bought the company’s products at Liquidation World.

(1) You call the company and you get a message: “The number you’ve called is no longer in service . . .”

If you’re holding a stock that has been red-flagged on all 10 counts, call my pal Bre-Xer. He needs someone to talk to.

PRO'S THREE STARS

Andrew Boland is sticking with his top gun, Ketch Energy, as a strong buy with a target of $10.50. The stock recently traded at $7.25 (year range, $2.60-$8.25).

“The company’s strength is consolidation and exploitation and rationalization of properties as well as supplemental growth through exploration,” says the Peters & Co. analyst. “They plan to be one of the next intermediate producers.”

His other picks are Gauntlet Energy (GAU-TSE) and Zargon Oil & Gas (ZAR). “Gauntlet (recent price $6, year range, $1.10-$6.50) is primarily in gas exploration and its focus on growth is through the drill bit,” says Boland. “They have some exciting gas plays in the Hamburg area of northern Alberta.”

Boland’s target for Gauntlet is $8.

Zargon (recent price, $7.30, year range, $3.60-$7.70) gets a $9 target. “This company is very well managed with a focus on earnings and rate of return on capital,” he says.

He adds that he doesn’t consider any of his three picks takeover targets.

Boland’s Record (December picks): +79 per cent (Ketch +117 per cent, BXL +77 per cent, Ionic +43 per cent).

* CHEERS: To the Rodney Dangerfield of currencies, the Loonie, for awakening with a vengeance to trade in the .66-.67-cent range.

* JEERS: To securities commissions that wrist-slap brokers for conflicts of interest. In a recent case, two brokers with First Marathon found by the B.C. Securities Commission to have acted in conflicts of interest were recently suspended from doing business in B.C. securities markets for only two years. What does that do for investor confidence?

HOT ALBERTA STOCK: Heritage Oil

HOC.A-TSE $1.20

Up 40 cents (+50%) on 3,640 shares (for week ending June 8).

Heritage announced successful results from testing of its No. 2 well along with increased reserves at the Kouakouala Field in the Republic of Congo, giving the Class-A shares of its stock a push on weak volume. The company, which boasts an attractive price-earnings ratio of 7.5, has a 25-per-cent equity interest in the Kouakouala Field and also has projects in Oman, Angola, Uganda and India.

COLD ALBERTA STOCK: Promax Energy

PMY-TSE $1.01

Down 20 cents (-19.2%) on 1,395,448 shares (for week ending June 8)

Promax's share price is starting to look interesting again after a recent flurry of selling that has pounded the stock down 80 per cent from its April peak of $1.80. Research Capital analyst Peter Linder initiated coverage of the stock on April 8 with a strong buy and $3.50 target but downgraded it to a sell with a $1.35 target on May 29. Last August, it was a 45-cent stock. The company's focus is on natural gas in southeastern Alberta, mainly in the Milk River and Medicine Hat areas.