It's been 71/2 years since I began writing these weekly commentaries. That's a lot of articles.
A perusal of the archives serves as a nice reminder of the wide range of issues that have preoccupied us in these volatile times.
There have been articles on various countries such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Chile and many others.
Articles on monetary policy issues and corporate malfeasance.
The benefits of free trade. Globalization and the new trade paradigm - integrative trade - and what it means for companies and policymakers. Trade triangles. The growing importance of outbound foreign investment to Canada's international competitiveness.
There have been many articles on the global economic and financial outlook, and its implications for Canadian exporters. The "new age of uncertainty" that emerged after the events of 9/11. Political risk assessments.
The Asian tsunami of December 2004. SARS and BSE. Articles on productivity, profitability and commodity markets. Global deflation and the $39 DVD player, later to become $28, and still there. The Victorian Depression. The two-track economy, with its head in the oven, its feet in the freezer - reasonable on average, but uncomfortable for all concerned.
And then there's the Canadian dollar, a frequent preoccupation.
Like a recalcitrant teen, our beloved loonie has generally refused to do what we expected of it and has done the right thing only after we had pretty well given up on ever seeing it happen.
For example, when the dollar first slipped below 70 cents US, we argued that it would recover into the 80s if only the rest of the world would return to normal. Instead, the dollar continued its slide, leading many to forecast a 50-cent dollar. The eventual recovery in the dollar was welcome to a beleaguered forecaster, but not when it overshot and became a 90-cent dollar, then 100 cents and, briefly, 110. And we still think it will return to the 80s - if the world returns to normal.
This work has been fun and fulfilling. Through the various ups and downs of the economy, financial markets and the dollar, my greatest pleasure has been interacting with real people who are building real companies for the benefit of their employees and shareholders. If this work has brought them a measure of value, if it has mattered to them, then that is enough.
All that being said, there comes a time when maintaining personal and professional growth demands that one take a new direction, and that is what is happening here.
Peter Hall, whom I have had the pleasure to mentor for nearly four years, has taken on the mantle of chief economist, and will become your regular columnist.
As senior vice-president, financing, I will gladly retain overall responsibility for EDC Economics and our international trade intelligence group, and Peter has promised to let me contribute a weekly commentary from time to time.
The bottom line? I want to thank you for your interest, constructive feedback, encouragement and support these past seven years. It's been a pleasure.
(Stephen Poloz is the senior vice-president, financing, for Export Development Canada. He can be reached at spoloz@edc.ca)
