(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top stock picks of some of Canada's most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Gene Vollendorf is CEO and portfolio manager of Savoy Capital Management (www.savoycapital.ca). The Calgary firm manages the Gladiator LP long/short fund.
Fund Form: The Gladiator Fund has a three-year compound annualized return of 29.7 per cent compared to the group average of 8.8 per cent. Management Expense Ratio: 1.5 per cent.
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| Gene Vollendorf |
Vollendorf's View: "The sectors with the strongest earnings momentum are energy, base metals, telecom, especially wireless, and gold. Financial services are lacklustre and Canadian exporters' profits continue to be adversely impacted by the burgeoning Canadian dollar.
"For the rally to continue into the first quarter of 2005, oil must stabilize around $45 (US), inflation must be contained and investors must be assertive. We believe capital will flow from bonds to stocks as inflation and a tightening monetary policy will cap bond returns. The U.S. dollar will continue its downward trend as the ability of foreign investors to continue buying U.S. Treasuries in large quantities is not sustainable. Even (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan) Greenspan recently acknowledged this point.
"Our advice is to look for companies that have costs outside of Canada and/or do not sell into the U.S. Stay long oil services (stocks) and oil producers, even ones with international exposure. Gold is a good place to be with a declining U.S. dollar and stay away from the banks. Overall, GDP (gross domestic product) growth is healthy, providing equity markets with the ability to continue their upward ascent."
FIRST STAR
* Ace Aviation Holdings (TSX:ACE.RV)
* Recent Price: $28.84
* 52-Week Range: $0.03-$29.30
* Snapshot: Ace was the company formed when Air Canada emerged from bankruptcy protection. Its subsidiaries include Air Canada, Jazz Air and Aeroplan.
* CEO: Robert Milton.
* Head Office: Montreal.
* Vital Stats: Shares Outstanding, 77.33 million.
* Vollendorf's View: "In their most recent quarter, Ace had the lowest cost structure of any of the North American legacy carriers. The company also had leading load factors in Canada and attractive top-line revenue growth. We think they can continue to surprise on the upside, especially as oil prices stabilize.
"The company is under-owned by equity managers and trades at a significant discount to the peer group despite a much stronger competitive position post-reorganization. We think that a $35 target price is reasonable."
* Vollendorf's Risk Rating: Medium to high.
* Web Watch: www.aircanada.ca
SECOND STAR
* Telesystem International Wireless (TSX:TIW)
* Recent Price: $14.35.
* 52-Week Range: $9.10-$20.65.
* Snapshot: TIW is a cellular phone provider probing markets in Romania, the Czech Republic and India.
* CEO: Bruno Ducharme.
* Head Office: Montreal.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 43.5; Revenue (last 12 mos), $1.5 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 8.1%; Earnings (last 12 mos), $42.3 million; Market Cap, $2.0 billion; Shares Outstanding, 139.9 million.
* Vollendorf's View: "This is the only stock that offers pure play exposure to the growing trends of wireless telecommunications globally. The company has very attractive growth metrics with over 30- per-cent revenue and bottom-line growth expected in 2005.The company has also recently increased its ownership in its Czech Republic assets, which simplifies the company's corporate structure. We think that a 21-per-cent return is achievable over the next year as earnings momentum continues in the hot wireless sector."
* Vollendorf's Risk Rating: Medium to high.
* Web Watch: www.tiw.ca
THIRD STAR
* Canoro Resources Ltd. (TSXV:CNS)
* Recent Price: $2.90
* 52-Week Range: $0.80-$3.04
* Snapshot: Canoro is an oil and gas exploration company focused on two large working interests in the Assam Basin in India.
* CEO: Les Kondratoff.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), N/A; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mos), $1.9 million Loss; Market Cap, $133.33 million; Shares Outstanding, 46 million.
* Vollendorf's View: "We believe that Canoro has a compelling risk/return profile. If the company achieves drilling success, the upside to the stock is well over 100 per cent given the large pool sizes that are characteristic of the Assam Basin.
"The company is exploring close to 2,000 square kilometres of land that have been under-explored by the Indian government.
"We also feel India is a relatively low-risk international area for oil investment because property rights are protected and there is a stable fiscal regime. This company reminds us of an early stage Niko Resources. The company has a clean balance sheet as well as an experienced board and management team."
* Vollendorf's Risk Rating: High.
* Web Watch: www.canoro.com
Vollendorf's Edge Record (past 12 mos): -6.2%. Best Pick: Wellco Energy Services Trust (WLL.UN-TSX) +21.1%. Worst Pick: Evolved Digital Systems (EVD-TSX) -75.9%.
Disclosure: The featured stocks are held in the Gladiator Fund managed by Vollendorf.







