(Every week, Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz profiles the top three stock picks of one of Canada’s top investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Peter Linder is the energy strategist with Calgary-based DeltaOne Capital Partners (www.deltaonecapital.com) and manages the DeltaOne Energy Fund. Formerly, he was the oil and gas analyst with Research Capital.
Fund Form: The DeltaOne fund has returned 25.6 per cent since its inception in October of 2002 (through April 30).
Linder’s Commodities Outlook: “The current outlook for natural gas prices is the best I’ve ever seen it. I’m suggesting we’ll average $6.50 US (NYMEX natural gas price) this year (up from a $5.50 forecast three months ago) and there’s a strong possibility we’ll see a $10 US (natural gas) price this summer.
“On the oil side, I believe we’ll average about $29 US (per barrel) for the balance of this year and average over $30 US for the year.
“I think, for 2004, we’ll be looking at the natural gas price averaging about $6 US NYMEX and the oil price
averaging about $28 US (per barrel).”
Recent Commodity Prices: Crude oil, $28.46 US per barrel; natural gas, $6 US NYMEX.
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FIRST STAR
* Pivotal Energy (PVX-TSX)
* Recent Price: $2.70.
* 52-Week Range: $1-$3.57.
* Linder’s 12-Month Target: $10 (based on the price after the shares consolidate on an approximate 2-for-1 basis with completion of the proposed merger with Fairborne Energy).
* Snapshot: Pivotal was recently acquired by privately held Fairborne Energy in a deal that would see
shareholders receiving 0.485 of a Fairborne share for each Pivotal share. Earlier this year, Pivotal was formed from a merger between Manhattan Resources and Cigar Oil & Gas.
* CEO: Brian Gore.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $9.3 million; Profit/Loss (last 12 mos), $400,000 Loss; Market Cap, $58.5 million; Shares Outstanding, 21.67 million.
* Linder’s View: “This is one of those typical stories featuring a new management that is well known and has a very good track record. I believe the Fairborne management will do wonders for Pivotal given their asset base and the deals they’re expected to undertake.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Low.
* Web watch: www.pivotalenergyltd.com
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SECOND STAR
* Cequel Energy (CQL-TSX)
* Recent Price: $6.65.
* 52-Week Range: $3.20-$6.97.
* Linder’s 12-month Target: $9.
* Snapshot: Cequel is a junior oil and gas company with operations in Alberta. It has a production weighting of 75 per cent toward natural gas.
* CEO: Don Archibald.
* Head Office: Calgary (38 employees).
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 52.0; Revenue (last 12 mos), $55.7 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 228.8%; Profit (last 12 mos), $5.2 million; Market Cap, $384.05 million; Shares Outstanding, 57.75 million.
* Linder’s View: “This is predominantly a natural gas play and it has exciting exploration potential. I like the management team (formerly with Cypress Energy) and, although the stock has done phenomenally well, I still see a lot of upside left in it.
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web watch: www.cequelenergy.com
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THIRD STAR
* Endev Energy (ENE-TSX)
* Recent Price: $1.82.
* 52-week Range: 0.67-$1.93.
* Linder’s 12-month Target: $2.75.
* Snapshot: Endev is an oil and gas junior focused on three areas in Alberta with balanced production and resource ratios of about 50 per cent oil and 50 per cent natural gas. Endev recently acquired Moxie Petroleum (MXE-TSX Venture) in a $22-million deal.
* CEO: John Driscoll.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 47.5; Revenue (last 12 mos), $14.5 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 60.9%; Profit (last 12 mos), $1.6 million; Market Cap, $126.35 million; Shares Outstanding, 69.42 million.
* Linder’s View: “This company is focused on predominantly lower-risk gas drilling in southeastern Alberta and the management is very well regarded, having been very successful in profitably buying and selling companies. I believe management will sell the company within a year for about $2.50.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Low.
* Web watch: www.endevenergy.com
* Linder’s Edge Record (since last September): +3.0%. Best Pick: Cequel Energy (CQL-TSX) +44.6% (since last November). Worst Pick: Gauntlet Energy (GAU-TSX) -94.7% (since last September).
* Disclosure: Linder is restricted from trading shares within the DeltaOne Energy Fund in which the featured stocks are held.









