We’ve got an old-fashioned ‘street’ fight on our hands, featuring oil and gas analysts, a rare species that hasn’t agreed on anything since the 17th century.

In one corner, in the bearish red shorts, Calgary’s Andrew Boland, representing Peters & Co.

“You don’t want to catch a falling knife,” cautions Boland, as the oilpatch guru refuses to come out of his corner.

In the other corner, in the bullish green shorts, is Vancouver’s Jim Bartlett, representing Odlum Brown.

“If that’s what Boland thinks, he doesn’t know anything about the weather,” quips Bartlett, landing a low blow.

The cheeky Bartlett, who is particularly bullish on gas-weighted stocks and surprisingly bold in forecasting cold snaps for a guy without an overcoat, figures Calgarians should be stocking up on gassy stocks and thermal underwear.

“Calgary, you’re going to be freezing your tootsies off all winter,” ventures Bartlett from the wet coast, far removed from the ’patch. “In January, it’s going to be 40 below Fahrenheit for the whole month. I can’t talk about where this information is coming from. It’s top secret.”

The specialist in energy, mining and utility stocks is betting that a bitterly cold winter will drive up natural-gas prices and gas-weighted stocks in particular (for Bartlett’s picks, see Pro’s Three Stars column).

On the other hand, even with oil prices strengthening recently on speculation that OPEC will cut production more than had been anticipated, Boland is anticipating a slump for oil-and-gas stocks that could last until late in 2002.

“Gas stocks have a lot of air underneath them and anywhere from 20 to 40 per cent downside,” says Boland. “The oil stocks probably have about 10 to 20 per cent downside. I don’t think there will be a recovery until the end of the third or fourth quarter of ’02.

“In an environment like this, you have to be very cautious with recommendations, so short-term for one or two quarters we’re quite bearish,” adds Boland, citing falling demand. “We’re looking at a $23 US per barrel oil price for 2002, but we honestly think that’s coming to $18 or $20. If you have to own oil and gas stocks, you’re probably going to want to own something like a Suncor (Energy). It has Project Millennium coming on line and through that it will show significant growth year after year, which may help offset some of the commodity price fall.”

Boland’s 2002 forecast for natural gas is $2.85 Cdn mcf (per thousand cubic feet).

Bartlett’s official forecast for gas is $3.10 but he adds: “I want to say $4 and I probably will say it eventually.”

While Boland has plenty of company in the bear camp, Bartlett has a formidable tag-team partner in outspoken Calgary oil and gas analyst Peter Linder.

Linder, of Research Capital, has been trumpeting a bullish stance on gas-weighted stocks such as Canadian Natural Resources, and recently raised his 2002 gas forecast from $4 to $5 Cdn mcf.

Writes Linder in a recent research report: “Mother Nature has promised a colder than normal winter and you don’t mess with Mother Nature.”

Now them’s fighting words!

* STREET TALK: Linder characterizes Rio Alto Exploration (RAX-TSE), long rumoured to be a take-out target, as a “sitting duck.” He writes in a recent research report: “We believe there is a very strong likelihood that RAX will be purchased before the end of first quarter, 2002, at a price exceeding $30 (recent price $22). The more beaten up the stock, the sooner will be the announcement of a takeover.”

* STRAIGHT TALK: Odlum Brown’s Bartlett is brutally frank in his assessment of the controversy over David Tuer’s resignation from PanCanadian Energy. Says Bartlett: “Seeing him leave didn’t bother me in the least. He was a good technical guy, but I don’t think he was fantastic necessarily as a leader or a person who would convince people to buy his stock. He was a bit dull and you need a little more than that to attract investors. Besides, PanCanadian is such a good company that I think a kid out of kindergarten can run that company.”

* CHEERS: To John Embry of RBC Capital Markets, who had the decency to apologize to ROB-TV viewers for having recommended a losing stock instead of blaming the markets as most of his peers do.

* JEERS: To Canada 3000, for leaving passengers and shareholders out in the cold with its atrocious handling of ceased operations.

* SAGE ADVICE: “You know, I was a little crazy. To fight for a business like that, you need enormous energy. And you have to be a little crazy. Wardair had thrilled me and nearly killed me.” - Canadian entrepreneur Max Ward, on his ill-fated attempt to keep classy charter airline Wardair in flight.

HOT ALBERTA STOCK: Progress Energy

PGX-CDNX $3.82

Up $1.42 (+59.2%) on 1,496,100 shares (for week ending Nov. 9).

Shareholders of the Calgary-based oil and gas stable are betting on the jockey as Progress was off to the races on news of a fresh management team, starring David Johnson as president and CEO. Johnson, who replaces Kenneth Bowie, has made progress before – as president of Calpine Energy and, prior to that, as president and CEO of Encal Energy until it was taken over earlier this year.

COLD ALBERTA STOCK: Inventronics Inc.

IVT-TSE

55 Cents Down 75 cents (-57.7%) on 260,300 shares (for week ending Nov. 9).

Considering the sad state of the telecommunications and electronics manufacturing industry, Inventronics' news wasn't exactly shocking although the stock might argue the point. The Calgary company reported third-quarter operating losses of $2,977,000, including non-recurring restructuring costs of 2,509,000, and a 25-per-cent decline in sales from the previous quarter. The stock tumbled to a year low, 87 per cent off its year high of $4.40.