Specifics on the latest numbers weren't available at press time, but one thing is certain.

The new-home construction industry can wave a cheerful good-bye to earlier predictions of a significant decline in new- home construction for Alberta's two largest cities.

Indeed, if the current pace of market activity holds true for 2005, Calgary's new-home construction industry will set the "strongest cycle for new-home construction in history" by building more than 13,000 single- and multi-family homes for the fourth year in a row, says Richard Corriveau, a Calgary-based senior market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Single-family home construction in Calgary is expected to exceed 8,000 units in 2005, a dramatic increase from the 7,600 units forecast earlier this year. The first prediction represented a 13-per-cent decline in new housing starts for Calgary.

Al Morrison, president of Morrison Homes

In Edmonton, the latest CMHC numbers predict that city will end the year with about 6,600 new single-family homes, up from an earlier estimate of 6,000, says senior market analyst Richard Goatcher.

This puts Edmonton's new single-family home construction for 2005 at about the same level as 2004. Given current market absorption rates, Goatcher expects builders will start 2006 with more inventory if they exceed last year's figure.

Based on first-quarter calculations, the number-crunchers with CMHC likely knew they had a "good news" problem with their initial numbers even before new-home builders in Edmonton and Calgary hosted their recent annual spring SAM (sales and marketing) awards for 2005.

But Bill Davidson, president of the Edmonton Region Home Builders' Association (ERHBA), didn't need new stats to tell him that his city's new-home building business was thriving above expectations.

Davidson, a managing partner with Burke Perry Master Builder, which earned two best model awards in different SAM categories for single-family homes, had heard predictions of a five- to eight-per-cent decline in housing starts for Alberta's capital city. Speaking before CMHC revised its figures, Davidson said his own company's market indicators remain strong for 2005 - with no slowdown in site.

Al Morrison, president of Calgary-based Morrison Homes, tells a similar tale. Morrison, whose company was named 2005 Builder of the Year at the Calgary Region Home Builders' Association's (CRHBA) recent SAM awards, says his firm completed 439 single-family homes in 2004. This year, he expects the final figure to go as high as 450.

Overall market increases are driven by economic realities such as low mortgage rates and increased migration. But news of another big win in the local SAM awards definitely helps Morrison Homes maintain its market position, says Morrison. "It's very important for my team because it's a huge pat on the back," notes the second-generation new- home builder.

The last six months have "been a hot market, for sure," adds Morrison. "There's a lot of consumer confidence, a lot of qualified buyers, a lot of good product."

A major win in the prestigious SAM awards is a "byproduct of what you do in a year," adds Jay Westman of Jayman Master Builder Inc. His company won the Grand SAM Builder honours in this year's SAM awards, hosted by the ERHBA.

Although headquartered in Calgary, where the firm leads the industry in terms of the number of single-family home building permits issued in recent years, Jayman has built homes in the Edmonton area since 1983. To boost its presence in Edmonton, the company expects to open a permanent office there later this year.

The permanent office is in step with Jayman's strategy for growth (the company is also expanding into Denver) and the fact "we see more opportunities for our company in Edmonton" over the next five to 10 years, says Westman.

Like Morrison, Westman says a SAM award win is a useful marketing tool, and a welcome acknowledgement of quality craftsmanship and product. Jayman won ERHBA SAM awards in three best model categories. The firm also won a best site sales award and a number of best advertising awards.

At the CRHBA SAM awards, Jayman won a Best Town Home Community award ($170,000-plus) for The Versailles. That same multi-family project earned a national SAM award earlier this year.

Besides Builder of the Year, Morrison Homes won Calgary SAM awards for the best-selling home, three awards in best new home categories (different price ranges) and a customer choice award in the single-family home (large volume).

Morrison also won a national SAM award in the new home category for its Heath Residence. Other national awards went to Sabal Crafted Homes and Hopewell Residential Communities, both of Calgary, and to Ackard Contractors Ltd. of Edmonton.

Both companies are investing in company systems that improve internal and external information transfer.

With multiple awards to its credit, "one of the challenges is managing expectations" in a building process that's complicated by the sheer number of personnel and product needed to build a home, says Al Morrison. His company directly employs 98 people (including contracted sales staff) and "with that many people, we've barely driven a nail," he notes.

CMHC's Corriveau says a stronger-than-expected market for new homes in Alberta is being fuelled by low mortgage rates and a net increase in migration, especially in Calgary. New-home construction is also affected by continued economic strength, the popularity of new subdivisions - and even good building weather.

The future threat of higher mortgage rates and construction prices also helped bring a higher-than-expected number of consumers into the market, says Corriveau.

(Joy Gregory can be reached at joy@businessedge.ca)