My pal Bre-Xer is not available for comment this week — presumably, the poor chap is holed up in his root cellar in anticipation of an explosion of that scary contraption at the Toronto Stock Exchange they call a computer — so we present the first annual Nortel Traders Survival Kit (and hopefully last annual).
* 1. Rolaids (any truth to the rumour Rolaids will soon sponsor the heartburn-inducing TSE?).
* 2. Yankee Insurance. If you’re buying Nortel, remember it also trades on the New York Stock Exchange (NT-NYSE). Then, the next time the 800-pound Nortel gorilla paralyzes the tech-challenged TSE and is halted, you can laugh at your friends and tell ’em you traded it on the NYSE.
* 3. Wool sweater and sheep shears. If you panicked and sold Nortel near its recent bottom, you may need a reminder that the stock market is a sheep market and those who resort to the flock mentality tend to get fleeced.
* 4. A copy of Larry MacDonald’s book Nortel Networks: How Innovation And Vision Created A Networking Giant. In case you forgot, this company is still a fibre-optics giant.
* 5. A subscription to Report On Business TV. So you can watch those over-zealous analysts who were tripping over each other to recommend Nortel in the $100 range wipe the egg off their faces while explaining how their baby was spanked from the $90s to the $60s.
* 6. Tickets to Yuk-Yuk’ Comedy Club. You may need a good chuckle. “Picked up a used computer at a garage sale in Hogtown for a Toonie. Then I found out I paid too much. It was from the Toronto Stock Exchange. Yuk-yuk!!”
This week, we’re taking a 19 per cent profit ($950.00) on Twin Mining (TWG-TSE) at 64 cents and buying DataWave Systems (DTV-CDNX) at 38 cents. This is risky as DataWave, which develops wireless technology to manage merchandizing kiosks, is down more than 80 per cent from its year high like many techs. However, DataWave has actual profits ($2.9 million in its last annual). We still favor Twin and hope to reacquire the diamond play.
ANALYST'S THREE STARS
Calgary’s Fred Pynn was one of few analysts to wave a red flag before Nortel’s third-quarter report came out with revenue below analyst expectations.
Pynn, vice-president and director of equity research at Bissett & Associates Investment Management, told the National Post a few days before the earnings release he was significantly underweight on Nortel, having sold in the $100 to $120 range, and voiced concern over its valuations.
Asked if Nortel looked sexy again at $66, Pynn told the Edge he still wasn’t comfortable with that price. “The valuation correction in technology stocks is well under way,” said Pynn. “And there’s still potential damage.”
Pynn’s three stars are CAE Inc. (CAE), Four Seasons Hotels (FSH) and MDS Inc. (MDS), all on the TSE.
CAE, at a recent price of $19.00 with a yearly trading range of $7.30-$20.75, manufactures full-flight simulators for commercial airlines. Pynn forecasts earnings-per-share of $1.08 for fiscal year 2001 and $1.26 for 2002.
“They dominate their business on a global basis and revenue and earnings are rising rapidly.”
Four Seasons is attractive at a recent price of $106.00 ($57.50-$119.00 range) because “it’s very international with almost all its revenue and profits coming from outside of Canada.”
MDS, a health and life sciences company, is “a little expensive (at $29.00 with a range of $13.38-$32.38) but we like them because they’re involved in the health-care area.”
TRADING TIP As Nortel shareholders would attest, greed kills. Don’t be afraid to take some profits off the table, particularly with volatile techs. Nobody ever went broke taking profits.
SITE OF THE WEEK: Fool.com
Here’s an investment site with a rich (and foolish) sense of humour that tells it like it is.
In its intro to 13 Steps To Investing Foolishly, the Motley Fool quips: “The wise would have you believe that ‘A Fool and his money are soon parted.’ But in a world where three quarters of all PROFESSIONAL money managers lose to the market averages, year in and year out, how wise should one aspire to be?”
HOT STOCK ONCOLYTICS BIOTECH ONC-TSE $20.00 Up $3.70 (23%) on 731,000 shares (week ending Oct. 27)
Is it a mirage? A biotech company that doesn't have a chart that looks like Mount Everest? Oncolytics, a Calgary company, is showing it can move mountains in a rocky biotech market. The stock soared to near its year high of $21.00 on news of a U.S. patent for its reovirus, trading 731,000 shares. Oncolytics is in the process of developing the reovirus known as Reolysin as a potential cancer therapeutic.
(Prices based on Friday close)
COLD STOCK NORTEL NT-TSE $65.50 Down $38.25 (37%) on 66 million shares (week ending Oct. 27)
In what may have been the biggest implosion since the General Hospital was levelled, the fibre-optic giant lost $100 billion from its market cap and the $100-billion-dollar question was whether the blood-letting was over. The bulls and bears were scrapping over whether Nortel, which has wireless operations in Calgary, was on sale or at a premium. Judging by the dishevelled look of boss John Roth, the bear was winning.
(Prices based on Friday close)






