The federal government's decision to scrap several programs related to the Kyoto Protocol won't deter the development of alternative-energy technologies, vow industry experts and analysts.

"Governments come and go, policies come and go, but climate change is not going away," says Brian Kelly, director of the Sustainable Enterprise Academy at York University's Schulich School of Business in Toronto.

Kelly predicts Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government will eventually backtrack on its decision to scuttle several programs that were designed to help Canada meet its Kyoto targets. Federal Minister of Natural Resources Gary Lunn, whose riding is on Vancouver Island where several alternative energy projects are in the works, has announced the Tories have scrapped 15 programs designed reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, news outlets are reporting that Ottawa will slash spending on Environment Canada programs that aim to curb global warming by 80 per cent, while other ministries will see programs devoted to climate change cut by 40 per cent.

According to its Kyoto obligations, Canada must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions six per cent from 1990 levels by 2012.

Several scientists and energy industry insiders have contended the country won't be able to meet that goal, while environmental groups have challenged opposition parties to bring down the minority Tory government if it shirks its Kyoto commitment.

Kelly says some environmental businesses will suffer, and the climate protection movement will be set back several years if the Tories don't follow through on Kyoto, especially if the country continues to draw most of its energy supply from the Alberta oilsands, the yet-to-be-developed Arctic and other traditional sources.

Kelly is also part of Sustainable Enterprise Consulting, a Toronto-based firm that consults companies on sustainability issues. He says the Tories' anti-Kyoto stance will hurt firms that are just starting to realize business opportunities from technologies designed to help Canada meet its Kyoto targets.

"We were just getting to the point where companies were starting to see the business benefits," says Kelly.

Vancouver-based Westport Innovations Inc. and several companies in B.C.'s "hydrogen hub" that are developing fuel-cell technology for the automotive and stationary-power industries could also be affected by the Tories' stance, he believes.

Iogen Corp. of Ottawa, which is developing cellulose-based ethanol for use in the automotive industry, and Calgary-based Suncor, which is developing solar, run-of-river hydroelectricity, wind and biomass energy programs, along with its traditional oil and gas production in the oilsands, could also be affected.

Kelly says companies need to make a business case in spite of the negative signals from Ottawa. "There have been lots of studies that show there would be winners and losers, but there is no huge hit on the Canadian economy," says Kelly.

Ken McCready, a senior policy adviser with the Calgary-based Canadian Energy Council, says "a healthy review" of all Kyoto-related programs will not hurt companies trying to develop alternative energy technologies.

He says high oil and gas prices will have a greater impact than Kyoto on the development of renewable fuels and the growth of alternative energy companies.

The Canadian Energy Council is Canada's representative on the World Energy Council, a global, multi-energy, non-governmental, non-commercial organization that promotes the sustainable use and supply of energy for everyone in the world.

McCready, former president and CEO of Calgary-based electricity supplier and marketer TransAlta Corp., sits on the boards of several alternative energy companies, including Vancouver-based Nexterra Energy Corp., which develops and manufactures advanced gasification systems from biomass for industrial customers, and Vancouver-based Nai Kun Wind Development Inc., which is planning to build a 320-megawatt wind-power facility between the Queen Charlotte Islands (also known as Haida Gwaii) and Prince Rupert in a partnership with the Haida First Nation.

He favours the development of all available energy sources, including nuclear power, along with conservation to help Canada meet its growing energy demand in the future.

"I do believe that we need to put greater emphasis on the technology, and really, technology solutions all along the supply chain, which means (developing) alternative energies and making more traditional energies sustainable," says McCready.

He was "very disappointed in Kyoto" because he thought it would help companies manage training costs and other factors related to the development of alternative energy technologies.

Instead, he says, it "puts the blame" on Canada and a few other countries while failing to properly address climate change.

Like other energy industry insiders, McCready believes emission reductions should be achieved via business-based models and market forces rather than regulations.

"Canada has a huge abundance of all kinds of resources - traditional and alternative. We should be looking at developing a strategy, including all of the sustainable aspects of it, to improve our position in the world."

B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell says his Liberal government won't do anything to harm alternative energy companies, and will continue to promote emission reductions - regardless of what the federal Tories decide on Kyoto.

"The most important thing about Kyoto for everybody is not to try and develop it as a wedge," says Campbell. "Everybody wants to reduce greenhouse gases. Everyone wants to do it in a way that's sustainable and economically viable. " During the recent Globe 2006 Conference in Vancouver, which attracted 5,000 delegates from Canadian, U.S. and international companies and non-governmental organizations, expert panelists urged Canada to start developing strategies that extend beyond Kyoto.

"We don't have much time," said David Runnalls, president of the Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development, who moderated a session on possible post-Kyoto strategies.

"This is not an issue we can be talking about for the next 10-15 years."

Maurice Strong, former chairman of Ontario Hydro who also served as the first president of the Canadian International Development Agency and secretary-general of the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, said Canada must act on climate change well before Kyoto expires.

"Yes, we know we must deal with climate change, but we also know some of the effects are already with us," said Strong, now chairman emeritus of the Toronto-based Earth Council Alliance. "Let's not waste time focusing on post-Kyoto. Let's concentrate on pre-Kyoto."

Dan Gagnier, senior vice-president of Montreal-based Alcan Inc., the world's second-largest aluminum producer, said Canada will have to find more ways to put money into innovative research and development and technology. Noting Canada has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 megatonnes since 1990, he said people have to look at Kyoto as a business model.

Marlo Raynolds, executive director of the Calgary-based Pembina Institute, said Canada has been coasting on its nice-guy image when it comes to climate change, but is actually among the world's most environmentally irresponsible countries.

He called on Ottawa to set clear, achievable emission-reduction targets for industry to meet over time. Right now, he said, industries have to meet targets without any fiscal certainty.

"In the immediate term of 2012, we really do need to have clear, natural targets to close that (emissions) gap," said Raynolds.

New technology, he said, is not the solution to meeting Kyoto's requirements.

"We really have to be clear that this investment-in-technology trend is really a big delay tactic."

(Monte Stewart can be reached at monte@businessedge.ca)