Ron Gilbertson
For Business Edge

The TD Bank recently came out with a study that concluded if the Edmonton/Calgary corridor was its own country, it would today be one of the most successful economies in the world, second only to Luxemburg in terms of GDP per capita.

Last year Foreign Direct Investment Magazine out of London, England, declared Edmonton as the No. 1 economic investment potential in North America.

And just before Christmas, the CIBC released a major study of all the large cities in Canada concluding that Edmonton is the most successful economy in Canada, even more successful than Calgary.

By almost any economic measure, whether it be employment, disposable income, housing starts or GDP, we rank as one of the top cities in the world in our class in terms of economic growth.

And the picture is expected to get rosier in the years and decades to come.

Last year, I listened to one of the world's top oil and gas experts at a global business forum in Banff. He said: "I just want to tell you three things. One: Right now, there are only about three decades left to the world's conventional oil economy. Number two: In spite of all the conservation in the world and new energy technologies, they are still projecting that new oil demand is going to increase by almost 50 per cent over the next 25 years. And point three: Right now, Alberta is considered to be the world's largest politically stable source of oil."

Over the next 10 to 15 years, there is no question that the growth and development of the oil industry, heavy oil in particular, will have a major impact on the Edmonton region's economy. And instead of just exporting bitumen out of the oilsands, the provincial government wants to start refining and grading it locally, producing gasoline, diesel fuel and a whole range of petrochemicals.

That activity alone will add an estimated $180 billion worth of investment in the Edmonton area in the next 12 years.

Right now, we are also working on a related project that could add $25 billion a year to the GDP of the Edmonton region. To put that in perspective, currently the GDP of the Edmonton region is roughly $50 billion. One value-added project alone could increase the value of the GDP by almost 50 per cent.

We can all see that the economic centres of gravity are moving slowly but surely from Eastern Canada toward the West. And the economic centre of Alberta is moving from the south to the north. In the next 10 years, it's forecast that 83 per cent of all capital investment in Alberta will be in the Edmonton region and its north.

As much as half a trillion dollars - that's trillion with a T - will be invested in northern Alberta in the next 20 years. So, if I were a Calgary business person planning the future of my company, I'd be asking myself: 'How do I participate in that?' " Edmonton is at a critical point. We are creating a vision of excellence. We are aspiring to become a great city. And it's not just a dream.

Consider that 20 years ago, Ireland was considered to be the economic basket case of Europe. Today, it's one of the two or three most successful economies in all of Europe. Singapore had no more reason for being more successful than Jakarta or Kuala Lumpur, but they set a plan in place 30 years ago to become a great city. They're now one of the most successful cities in the world. The most famous example of course is Dubai. In 1990, it was a big sandbox. We all know their story today.

In talking about greatness, it is important to understand that it doesn't make sense to compare Edmonton with 1.1 million people to Tokyo and London and Paris and New York. Our city is about the 425th largest in the world. So our comparators are cities like Munich and Lyons and Orlando and Brisbane.

Edmonton is developing a four-part long-term strategy. We're committing to efforts to diversify the economy. The two largest employers in our city are not the oil and gas industry. They are health care and education. We're making huge investments in advanced technology. And we're emerging as one of the largest financial centres in Canada, even larger than Calgary.

Our goal is to become Canada's health- care capital. We're the home of the Alberta Foundation of Medical Research, Canada's largest independent funding of research. We also have world-class institutes like the Cross Cancer, the Alberta Diabetes Institute and the Mazankowski Heart Institute.

Education is another foundation for our economy of the future. We have what many feel is the best public education system in North America. The University of Alberta is on track to become one of the top 20 research universities in the world. Consider we're the 425th largest city in the world with a top 20 research university. Are we ever punching above our weight!

In addition, ours is considered one of the most environmentally responsible cities in North America, with advanced waste recycling programs and water treatment technologies.

We have more green space per capita than any major city in North America.

Culturally, we are known as Canada's festival city - and our theatre and arts community is considered one of the best in North America. Edmonton's Rexall Place was ranked last year as the 12th top arena or venue in the world. Again - 425th largest city, 12th globally ranked arena or venue.

But our goal is even higher. We're making huge investments in our transportation infrastructure, our roads and our highways. We are spending $1.1 billion on our airport. We're expanding our LRT.

We have some real challenges, or icebergs, facing us. We have to be responsible with how we develop our resources in the oilsands and we have to deal with the shortage of skilled labour. We're being hit by rising costs and the rising Canadian dollar ... and they're affecting our competitiveness. Edmonton also has to co-operate better as a region.

Finally, when you are the 425th largest city in the world, it's hard for people to know who you are. New York last year spent $25 million advertising itself in Europe. So if New York has to work on its image, imagine a city of our size. But we're putting plans in place to see Edmonton emerge over the next 10 years as one of the elite cities of the world.

Our goal is to be one of the top five mid-sized cities in the world.

So, coming back to my original point: The Edmonton/Calgary corridor is one of the most successful economic corridors in the world.

Calgary is an important anchor in that corridor, but I'm here to tell you about the other end, the Edmonton end, and the amazing growth that's going to occur there over the next 20 years. So if you decide you want to be a part of it, plan for it.

(Ron Gilbertson is president and CEO of the Edmonton Economic Development Corp. He has an MA in economics from the University of Manitoba.)