Bid. Ask. Buy. Sell. Hold.
A robotic reporter on the Canadian business channel trumpets the news that gold stocks are charging on the Toronto Stock Exchange and, on the world stage of MSNBC, a distraught man weeps before the world.
The talking head announces that the gold stock, Barrick, has gained five per cent and the distraught man, Howard Lutnick, chief executive of bond brokerage Cantor Fitzgerald LP, chokes on his words on the American network. Lutnick lost about 700 employees, including his brother, in the terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre towers last week.
On a day of mourning for victims of the devastation in New York City, the streaming quotes at the bottom of the screen on ROB-TV show gains by oil companies. At the same time, on the same screen, U.S. president, George W. Bush mops tears during a prayer service.
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Ah, the magic of modern TV. Track the stock market while you pray with the prez. A Canadian stock market newsletter with a conscience, StreetSignal.com, e-mails word that it is cancelling its letter for a week out of respect for the victims. In the same note, it provides a Diary of a Madman (terrorist Osama bin Laden) from an FBI website, underscoring just how bizarre these times are.
Ashen-faced fund managers claim they don’t expect panic selling when the U.S. markets resume trading for the first time since terrorists demolished the nerve centre of the financial world. Yet, long faces suggest something else. The words ring hollow.
The ticker shows stock in Bioscrypt, a Canadian company with a finger-printing security technology, is up 40 per cent on a knee jerk, the teardrops of a nation and the heartache of Howard Lutnick, who was late for work at the World Trade Centre because he had taken his son to his first day of kindergarten. Who can cheer the market’s winners?
E*Trade Canada’s online trading for CDNX stocks is down but, with the president red-eyed on the front page and tensions mounting on the world stage, who can jeer a trading glitch?
Financial management firms preface reports by sending condolences to the U.S. The reports, delivered with heavy hearts, desperately try to calm jittery investors.
A Day Of Infamy. That’s how Calgary-based Mawer Investment Management titled a report released two days after the tragedy: Mawer has made no changes to asset mix models at this time.
They are not alone.
Who can know?
A market that plays on the emotions of greed and fear now is suffering from wild mood swings.
Jekyll or Hyde?
Who knows?
The morning after the tragedy, David Gardner, co-founder of the popular Motley Fool investment website, numbed by the tragedy, arrived late to work at his Washington, D.C., office near the Pentagon, a smouldering burial ground since one of the hijacked planes crashed there
. “When I drove into work later,” writes Gardner, “the parking lot at Fool headquarters was – is – full.”
Life goes on.
It’s what Howard Lutnick was TRYING to say.
PRO'S THREE STARS
Jim Bartlett, who specializes in energy, mining and utilities stocks, is particularly bullish on the energy industry.
“There might be a little blip with all the uncertainty (over the U.S. tragedy) but I don’t make too much of it,” says the analyst with Vancouver-based Odlum Brown. “Winter’s almost here, which should be good for prices (of oil and natural gas). OPEC is managing oil prices very well and I expect them to continue to do so. As for (natural gas) prices, I don’t think they’re sustainable at their current low levels. I think they’ll rise significantly and stay high.”
Bartlett’s top picks are Alberta Energy Company (AEC-TSE), PanCanadian Petroleum (PCP) and TransCanada Pipelines (TRP-TSE). All are rated as strong buys.
He has a 12-month target of “at least $100” on Alberta Energy, which recently traded at $55.80 (year range, $51.66-$78.45).
“It’s such a stellar company and they’ve tripled gas production in the last five years. And they’re now set to double oil production over the next few years.”
PanCanadian’s recent price was $42.75 (year range, $30.50-$47.40). Bartlett’s target is $65.
TransCanada Pipelines, which recently traded at $19.75 (year range, $13.10-$20.20) gets a 12-month target of $24.
“Everybody still has this vision that TransCanada is having a hard time of it, but the stock should be trading at 20 to 30 per cent higher,” says Bartlett.
He believes some gold stocks may have been over-bought on the recent rally. “I just put a sell recommendation on my favourite gold stock, Meridian Gold (MNG-TSE), because it hit my target of $16,” says Bartlett. “I think it’s a good time to sell gold stocks – when everybody thinks the world’s falling apart and they’re buying gold.”
HOT ALBERTA STOCK: Altagas Services Inc.
ALA-TSE $7.00 Up 80 cents (+12.9%) on 4,900 shares (for the week ending Sept. 14)
You must be doing something right when your stock is going up in a stormy market environment. Calgary-based AltaGas continues to shine after almost doubling its revenue last year. This may not be the most exciting company – it's a provider of natural-gas facilities and services – but it’s profitable and almost doubled its revenue last year with $505 million in revenue. It also boasts a price-earnings ratio of 13.5.
COLD ALBERTA STOCK: Wi-LAN Inc.
WIN-TSE $1.30 Down 45 cents (-25.7%) on 1,124,200 shares (for the week ending Sept. 14)
This was once the darling of Calgary tech stocks, but no more. The stock, which once traded in the $90 range, continues to take a pounding and the news doesn’t get any better. The maker of wireless data equipment has reduced staffing levels by 55 per cent, which includes the stepping down of president Bill Hews, who remains as a director. Wi-LAN projects revenue of $8 to $10 million for the quarter ending Oct. 31.







