(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top three stock picks of some of Canada's most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Dave Burrows is managing director and investment strategist of Rockwater Asset Management (www.disciplinedleadership.com). The Toronto-based firm manages five Canadian and U.S. equity and high-income funds.
Fund Form: The Disciplined Leadership Canadian Equity Fund 'A' has a six-month return of 15.9 per cent as compared to the group average of 8.9 per cent. The Disciplined Leadership U.S. Equity Fund 'A' has a six-month return of 14 per cent as compared to the group average of 2.3 per cent.
Management Expense Ratios: Disciplined Leadership Canadian Equity 'A', 2.47 per cent; Disciplined Leadership U.S. Equity 'A,' 2.52 per cent.
Burrows' Perspective: "Over the past 28 months, all of the major markets have enjoyed a significant cyclical rally led by basic material and commodity-related companies. Historically, the average cyclical bull market lasts 24 to 36 months. While the leadership themes remain intact and market conditions remain favourable in Canada, there is a much higher level of risk entering new positions at this time. For investors, the difficulty lies in the fact that the strongest returns often come during the end stages of a market rally. With risk goes reward.
"At this point, many investors are chasing the commodity, energy and basic materials sectors. In these sectors, 70 to 90 per cent of the companies are participating in the rally. It is easy to confuse market strength with quality. In late-stage rallies, while even the weaklings may be bid higher, it becomes even more important to focus on the leading companies. These companies will be the most resilient as the cycle matures. Watch the weaker companies for signs of under-performance. This will be the clue that the buying is slowing."
First Star
* Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX:TEK.SV.B)
* Recent Price: $42.95.
* 52-Week Range: $19.83-$44.65.
* Snapshot: Teck Cominco is involved in mining, smelting and refining, and is a major producer of zinc, metallurgical coal, copper and gold.
* CEO: David Thompson.
* Head Office: Vancouver.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 13.7; Revenue (last 12 mos), $3.45 billion; Earnings (last 12 mos), $617 million; Market Cap, $8.65 billion; Shares Outstanding, 201.3 million; Dividend Yield, 0.93 per cent.
* Burrows' View: "As a senior producer of zinc, coal, copper and gold, Teck gives investors exposure to a basket of the strongest-performing commodities. This company should benefit from a secular bull market for commodities and has a strong management team that has been able to deliver growing and better than expected profits. As a liquid large-cap stock, it should continue to attract institutional investors, both domestically and internationally."
* Trading Strategy: "We would use a stop-loss order (a safeguard against downside weakness) of $39. If our risk model for the minerals sector gave us a warning signal, we would consider tightening the stop-loss. We own the stock at lower levels but would continue to be a buyer (on strength)."
* Web Watch: www.teckcominco.com
Second Star
* Western Oil Sands Inc. (TSX:WTO)
* Recent Price: $51.80
* 52-Week Range: $30.05-$53.60
* Snapshot: Western Oil Sands constructs the principal facilities required to mine, extract, transport and upgrade the recovery of bitumen reserves found in Alberta oilsands deposits.
* CEO: Guy Turcotte.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 61.70; Revenue (last 12 mos), $615.9 million; Earnings (last 12 mos), $44.7 million; Market Cap, $2.71 billion; Shares Outstanding, 52.8 million.
* Burrows' View: "With a 20-per-cent stake in the strategically important Athabasca Oil Sands, WTO will benefit from international investors' demand for long-life reserves of oil and the emerging belief that higher energy prices are here to stay. With futures markets finally reflecting the view that energy prices will remain high, analysts are raising estimates of earnings for 2006-2007. It is likely the multinational industry players will become more interested in the tarsands over the years."
* Trading Strategy: "A stop-loss based on current conditions should be entered at $43.50. If our models pointed to caution in the energy group, we would consider raising the stop-loss to reduce risk."
* Web Watch: www.westernoilsands.com Third Star
* Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE:HMC)
* Recent Price: $26.80 US
* 52-Week Range: $19.25-$26.84 US
* Snapshot: Honda is a major automobile and motorcycle manufacturer, and also markets lines of motorized recreational and utility products, such as off-road vehicles, outboards, lawn tractors and other lawn and garden products.
* CEO: Takeo Fukui.
* Head Office: Tokyo.
* Vital Stats (US dollars): Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 11.2; Revenue (last 12 mos), $81 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 8.8 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $4.5 billion; 5-Yr Earnings Growth, 15.9 per cent; Market Cap, $49.8 billion; Shares Outstanding, 1.9 billion; Dividend Yield, 0.80 per cent.
* Burrows' View: "We try to identify leading businesses in markets that have been out of favour or have become underowned. Often, due to lack of interest in markets and sectors, outperforming companies can be purchased for a reasonable price. When buying returns, companies such as Honda tend to lead the market to the upside.
"Honda has grown its earnings 20-fold since 1994. While the Japanese stock market has been in a secular bear market since 1989, Honda has consistently hit new highs. There are signs that the Japanese market has been bottoming over the past year. A combination of growing global market share, exposure to Asian markets and a low-risk entry point make Honda an attractive addition to a global portfolio."
* Trading Strategy: "Long-term investors should use a stop-loss of $22.50. This would signal a change in price trend."
* Web Watch: www.honda.com
* Edge Record: This is Burrows' debut appearance.
* Disclosure: The featured stocks are major holdings in the Disciplined Leadership funds.
* NOTE: This feature is provided for information purposes. Investors should do their own research or seek advice from a qualified investment professional.
(Gyle Konotopetz can be reached at gyle@businessedge.ca)






