If the American stock markets were up 30 per cent in the past year, champagne would be popping on Wall Street.
CNBC's No. 1 market cheerleader and designated chair thrower Jim Cramer would be table-dancing on his Mad Money show.
One thing you can say about the Americans, they sure know how to throw a party and celebrate their victories.
But from an investment perspective, they haven't anything to celebrate lately - and things could get downright nasty across the line considering the ballooning twin deficits in the U.S.
Meanwhile, Canada's benchmark index, the S&P/TSX Composite, which historically has piggybacked the U.S. markets, has broken out and stomped the living daylights out of the U.S. markets with mind-boggling returns.
So what are Canadians doing to celebrate?
Mostly, we're nonchalantly shrugging our shoulders. Or in denial. Or griping and moaning that the market has gone up TOO MUCH!
The numbers in Canada are truly astounding.
Driven by a booming resource sector, the S&P/TSX Composite boasts a return of 30 per cent in the past year. The country's junior exchange, the resource-rich S&P/TSX Venture Exchange, has quietly chalked up a stunning 70-per-cent return over the past year. See, we're not only beating the U.S. in baseball.
Those are chest-beating results but alas, Canadians aren't very good at chest-beating.
Many Canadians either aren't aware of this raging bull market or putting a negative spin on it.
For several months now, so-called investment experts in Canada have been touting the U.S. as a cheap alternative to the hot Canadian stock market. They've been dead wrong so far with the Canadian markets continuing to steamroll ahead to record-breaking highs while the humdrum U.S. major indices have lagged behind.
The large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a pathetic eight per cent in the past year and the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 is up 11 per cent, a far cry from its Canadian counterpart.
But somebody out there has been pounding the table on the Canadian economy and its markets and emphasizing Canada's significant edge over the U.S.
And, naturally, it's an American.
Peter Grandich, who has been dubbed the "Wall Street Wizard" and is one of the most respected market forecasters in the U.S., recently touted Canada for its superiority over the U.S. in terms of its markets and economic outlook.
Indeed, Canada is sitting in the sweet spot in a global marketplace desperate for energy sources.
Canada's massive oilsands prospects are the envy of the world and now the world is starting to clue in to the fact that we also are sitting on some of the world's richest prospects in uranium for nuclear energy.
Our markets are also heavily weighted in mining companies that explore for and produce gold, silver, copper and zinc, metals that have been leading the stampede of investors into the mining sector.
In a recent report to subscribers of the Grandich Letter titled 'Canada Outshines its Neighbor to the South,' Grandich wrote: "I believe the Canadian and U.S. economies are moving in dramatically different directions.
"While this is mostly good news for Canadians (sorry, but the Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs appear to be beyond help), the coming social, political and economic upheaval in America will be the worst in history."
Grandich continues: "There's an old saying that when the U.S. sneezes, Canada catches a cold. I'm afraid what the U.S. is going to catch will require Canada to have something far more than some cough medicine and tissues. But rest assured Canadians, you won't want what many Americans are going to be coming down with."
Grandich has contended that the U.S., with its potentially crippling debt, should look to Canada for an example of how a country can turn around its economy.
Some of the key economic factors favouring Canada cited in Grandich's report are as follows:
* The Canadian economy isn't overheating, with industries operating at about 86.3 per cent of their capacity in the final quarter of 2005 (according to Statistics Canada).
* Canada's top executives are "overwhelmingly optimistic" about Stephen Harper's new government, predicting it will manage the economy better than the Liberal government (according to a Globe and Mail survey).
* The federal government reported a $9-billion surplus for the first 10 months of its fiscal year and debt charges dropped by $700 million.
Of Prime Minister Harper, Grandich, who is based in New Jersey, writes: "It's a long horserace but he's clearly broken out of the gate nicely ... this may cause some readers to get upset, but Mr. Harper reminds me of former U.S. president Ronald Reagan in that he was considered to be a loose cannon, yet surprised most by the time it was all said and done."
Grandich's optimism about Canada does come with a couple of cautionary notes.
"The only dark cloud remains the fact that Canada still sneezes if the U.S. catches a cold," points out Grandich, whose most famous call was predicting the 1987 stock market crash shortly before it occurred.
Grandich also cautions that the Canadian stock market that he has long been touting may be due for a "10-per-cent to 20-per-cent correction by 2007.
"While I expect it (Canadian stock market) to outperform its U.S. counterpart, I think on a valuation basis it's no longer undervalued. I also think the bulk of the gains from energy and commodity prices are at hand."
When the Canadian dollar was floundering in the 70-cent (to U.S. dollar) range, Grandich targeted it for a rise to 90 cents. It recently traded in the 87-cent range. Now, he says, "it's only a matter of time" before the loonie is trading at par to the U.S. dollar.
The newsletter writer recently sent out an alert predicting doom and gloom for the U.S. dollar.
"While I don't think the Euro or any other currency will become the dominant currency, the U.S. dollar's days as the world leader are over," he pronounced.
Appropriately, his opening line in that report was the popular serenade of Canadian hockey fans to visiting teams on the verge of defeat: "U.S. Dollar - Na, Na, Na, Na, Hey, Hey, Hey, Goodbye!" Considering Canada's rampaging bull market, Bay Street should be serenading Wall Street with the same lyrics.
* SAGE WORDS: "You can achieve real success if your greed increases on the downside and you have the guts to go in and buy when everybody sells - and if your fear increases on the upside and you're willing to sell when everybody wants to buy."
- One-time Bay Street star trader Andy Sarlos, 1981 (in The Acquisitors, by Peter Newman).
(Gyle Konotopetz can be reached at gyle@businessedge.ca)






