(Every week, Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz profiles the top three stock picks of one of Canada’s most accomplished investment pros.)

FEATURED PRO: Peter Linder is the energy strategist with Calgary-based DeltaOne Capital Partners (www.deltaonecapital.com).

Linder manages the DeltaOne Energy Fund, which boasts a return of about 50 per cent since its inception on Oct. 1, 2002. In November, Linder expressed bullishness on natural gas prices, which have since soared from $3.88 (U.S. NYMEX) to $7.39.

Linder’s Perspective: “I’m more bullish than ever, particularly on natural gas prices, and I still have a 100-per-cent long position with a focus on mid-cap and small-cap producers. My top picks are all run by experienced managers who have had great success with their previous companies.

Commodities Outlook: “I believe the NYMEX (natural gas price) will average $5.50 (US) this year and possibly $6 (US) with a warm summer. I believe that supply-demand for natural gas will be very tight this year. We’re not going to see much of a falloff of natural gas prices this spring and summer because producers will have great difficulty meeting storage demand. At the start of next winter, there will be record low storage
levels, which should support very high prices through next winter and beyond.

“I think the floor price for oil will be about $26 to $27 (US per barrel) and I think it will average about $30 US this year (recently in the $37 US range).”



FIRST STAR
* Bow Valley Energy (BVX-TSX)
* Recent Price: $3.00.
* 52-Week Range: $1.22-$3.20.
* Linder’s 12-Month Target: $4.50.
* Snapshot: Bow Valley has focused on acquiring international oil and gas properties since 1996, but the company has recently broadened its scope by aggressively pursuing a Western Canadian exploration program.
* CEO: Robert Moffat.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $22.2 million; Profit/Loss (last 12 mos), $25 million loss; Market Cap, $185.67 million; Shares Outstanding, 61.89 million.
* Linder’s View: “This company is predominantly involved in Western Canadian gas drilling and North Sea oil developments. They’re drilling exciting exploration gas wells in Western Canada and potential home-run oil wells in the North Sea.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web watch: www.bvenergy.com



SECOND STAR
* Progress Energy (PGX-TSX)
* Recent Price: $8.98.
* 52-Week Range: $4.65-$9.20.
* Linder’s 12-Month Target: $12.
* Snapshot: Progress is targeting natural gas and light oil projects with its base assets at Milo, B.C., and Two Creek, AB. It also has projects in southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
* CEO: David Johnson.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $30.3 million; Profit (last 12 mos), $200,000; Market Cap, $276.06 million; Shares Outstanding, 30.91 million.
* Linder’s View: “Progress is oil weighted with an increasing emphasis on natural gas. It has phenomenal production growth, very consistent
numbers and it should not, will not disappoint investors.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Low.
* Web watch: www.progressenergy.com



THIRD STAR
* Ketch Resources (KER-TSX)
* Recent Price: $5.31.
* 52-Week Range: $2.01-$5.74.
* Linder’s 12-Month Target: $7.
* Snapshot: Ketch’s production is based in northern Alberta and the company is levered 94 per cent toward natural gas. It plans to drill 30 of 60 identified projects this year. The company is the product of a restructuring last year of the former Ketch Energy.
* CEO: Grant Fagerheim.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (for 3 mos through Dec. 31, 2002), $5,853,000; Profit (for 3 mos through Dec. 31, 2002), $599,000; Market Cap, $109.04 million; Shares Outstanding, 20.01 million.
* Linder’s View: “With their strong weighting towards natural gas, they should do about $1.80 cash flow per share this year. They also have numerous exciting gas drilling prospects and production this year should double from last year.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Low.
* Web watch: www.ketchresources.com
* Linder’s Record (six previous picks): +11.5%. Best Pick: Thunder Energy +38.0%. Worst Pick: Gauntlet Energy -23.0%.
* Disclosure: Linder is restricted from trading shares of companies within the DeltaOne Energy Fund in which the featured stocks are held.