(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top stock picks of some of Canada's most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Bill Harris is a principal and portfolio manager of Avenue Investment Management (www.avenueinvestment.com), a Toronto-based independent investment company that manages equity and fixed-income accounts with a minimum investment of $100,000.
Management Fees: Two per cent, plus performance fees (one per cent if annual returns are not positive).
Harris's Energy Perspective: "Long term, I believe the best opportunity lies in the energy sector. I think energy becomes expensive to the economy at $80 (US per barrel) and I think that if there's a hiccup in something like China or India you could easily get oil back down to $30. I'm a seller at $80 and I'm a buyer at $30.
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| Bill Harris |
In between $80 and $30, I'm sort of neutral. And neutral to us in our portfolios means a 20-per-cent weighting in energy. When oil got to $70, we whittled down our energy exposure. As we come down, I'll probably be taking the exposure in energy up so I'd like to see more of a correction. It would probably have to drop another 10 to 15 per cent before I can get excited."
First Star
* PetroFalcon Corporation (TSX:PFC)
* Recent Price: $1.95.
* 52-Week Range: $1.49-$6.25.
* Snapshot: PetroFalcon is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Venezuela. The company operates and owns a natural gas service agreement in northwestern Venezuela.
* CEO: Juan Francisco Clerico.
* Head Office: Carpenteria, Calif.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $11.9 million US; Earnings (last 12 mos), $2.6 million US; Market Cap, $151.15 million; Shares Outstanding, 77.5 million.
* Harris's View: "PetroFalcon is in the regulated natural gas market in Venezuela and they have absolutely first-rate management that knows the area.
The stock has been beaten up because of the political risk of Venezuela, but it has nothing to do with the commodity prices coming off. They have a 10-year natural gas contract in Venezuela that does not go up and down with the price of oil or natural gas. I think there's a 10-per-cent risk that he (Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez) nationalizes the national gas market, but the stock is trading at a 50-per-cent discount to NAV (net asset value). So I think I will make 100 per cent on my money with a 10-per-cent risk that he nationalizes everything. I will take that bet because I don't think it's going to happen."
* Harris's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web Watch: www.petrofalcon.com
Second Star
* Falcon Oil & Gas (TSX:FO)
* Recent Price: $0.57.
* 52-Week Range: $0.18-$1.00.
* Snapshot: Falcon is an international oil and gas company with interests in Hungary, Romania and Alberta.
* CEO: Marc Bruner.
* Head Office: Denver, Colo.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $100,000 US; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mos), $100,000 US Loss; Market Cap, $7.98 million; Shares Outstanding, 14 million.
* Harris's View: "I like the management team headed by (CEO) Marc Bruner. He has taken his technical team from Ultra Petroleum (a company he founded) and looked for basin centre gas similar to what he developed in the U.S. at Ultra Petroleum. He has found a similar type of field in southern Hungary that he will test in January. What they would like to do is displace Russian gas with Hungarian gas. The risk to this stock is technical risk. The question is whether you can get the gas to flow. They know the gas is there because there were four wells drilled in the 1970s. We'll know in January. The company has a net asset value of roughly 50 cents based on its shallower oil wells, which I think justify a 50-cent stock price. But you also get a play on the natural gas prospects."
* Harris's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web Watch: www.falconoilandgas.com
Third Star
* Falconbridge (TSX:FAL.SV)
* Recent Price: $33.62.
* 52-Week Range: $21.25-$34.75.
* Snapshot: Falconbridge is an integrated mining and metals company. Its principal products are nickel, copper, zinc and aluminum. The company recently received a friendly takeover bid from Inco (TSX:N).
* CEO: Derek Pannell.
* Head Office: Toronto.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 13.17; Revenue (last 12 mos), $9.5 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 4.2 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $819 million; Market Cap, $12.35 billion; Shares Outstanding, 367.3 million; Dividend Yield, 1.871 per cent.
* Harris's View: "This was a core holding before the takeover offer by Inco and, although we previously had a target of $35 for Falconbridge, we're willing to stick with this and roll it into whatever company this becomes. First, we think the metal prices will stay higher longer, which makes this an inexpensive stock. But we now also like the huge synergies of the deal that makes the combined company attractive.
"Assuming the deal goes through, we believe this stock is worth the equivalent of the low $40s. There's also the outside chance that somebody comes in and makes a higher bid. There's probably a good chance of that."
* Harris's Risk Rating: Low.
* Web Watch: www.falconbridge.com
Disclosure: Bill Harris, his family and Avenue Investment Management clients own shares in the featured stocks. The company has no banking relationships with the companies in which it invests. Harris does not always pick stocks with 'falcon' in their name.
(This feature is presented for information purposes. Investors are advised to do their own due diligence or consult a registered professional before making investment decisions.)







