Canada’s economic engine is firing on all cylinders – led by Newfoundland and Labrador’s runaway growth, says The Conference Board of Canada’s Provincial Outlook – Fall 2002.

“All provinces are forecast to achieve economic growth above or near three per cent in 2003,” said Peter Hall, associate director, national forecast. “A turnaround in resource-oriented industries and numerous energy developments will stimulate the outlook in many provinces over the near term.”

Alberta will post a sluggish two-per-cent growth in 2002, but the resurgence in mineral fuels output next year will produce anticipated growth of five per cent in 2003, tops among Canadian provinces.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s 9.7-per-cent growth in 2002 is a full percentage point higher than the board’s previous forecast. It is being driven by an 86-per-cent increase in mineral fuels output, primarily from the Hibernia oil field and also from Terra Nova production, as well as a booming construction sector.

In other provinces:
* Prince Edward Island is harvesting its first good potato crop in three years, which will boost its real GDP growth to four per cent in 2002.
* Nova Scotia will post growth of 3.4 per cent in both 2002 and 2003, led by a double-digit increase in construction output.
* New Brunswick will generate three-per-cent growth in 2002, followed by 3.3 per cent in 2003.
* For Quebec, 2002 has been an exceptional year, with a record 100,000 jobs created since December 2001, 10-year highs in housing starts and thriving non-residential construction.
* Ontario is also having an excellent year, as growth is forecast to reach 3.4 per cent in 2002 and 3.5 per cent in 2003, thanks to strong consumer spending and job creation.
* A well-diversified economy in Manitoba will produce growth rates of 3.7 per cent this year and three per cent in 2003.
* A second straight year of drought has hit Saskatchewan hard, affecting both the agriculture sector and secondary industries. Real GDP is forecast to grow only 1.6 per cent this year. Assuming a normal crop in 2003, the economy will rebound with a 4.2-per-cent growth rate next year.
* British Columbia is recovering from its troubles of 2001, but not as strongly as was expected. The economy is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2002, and by 2.9 per cent in 2003.

The Provincial Outlook is published four times a year and provides information on the economic trends affecting each province. The Conference Board of Canada is an independent, not-for-profit applied research organization in Canada.

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