(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top three stock picks of some of Canada’s most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Peter Linder is the energy strategist with DeltaOne Capital Partners (www.deltaonecapital.com). With offices in Calgary and Toronto, DeltaOne is an asset management firm that manages a long/short hedge fund that targets the Canadian energy industry.
Fund Form: The DeltaOne Energy Fund has gained about 55 per cent since its inception two years ago. Year to date, the fund is down 20 per cent.
Management Expense Ratio: Two per cent.
Linder’s Energy Perspective: “I’m anticipating very, very strong performance for oil and gas stocks for the balance of this year and next year. I expect oil prices to average over $45 US (per barrel) and average at least $40 next year (the price recently traded in the $50 US range). Longer term, I believe the effective floor for oil prices will be $40. I expect the natural gas price to average about $6.25 US (mcf) for the rest of this year and $6.50 next year (the price recently traded at $6.35 US).
“I still favour the junior oil and gas stocks. They’re more expensive (in terms of price-to-earnings ratio) but they offer anywhere from 50-per- cent to 150-per-cent production growth this year over last year and this year over next year. Any reasonable success can have a huge impact on a junior company on a per-share basis. The senior companies still remain relatively inexpensive despite a huge move recently. We’re not shorting anything because this is such a strong market.”
First Star
* Galleon Energy (TSX:GO.A)
* Recent Price: $9.95.
* 52-Week Range: $1.90-$10.
* Linder’s 12-month Target: $15.
* Snapshot: Galleon is a junior oil and gas company with operations in central and northwestern Alberta as well as western Saskatchewan.
* CEO: Glenn Carley.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $300,000; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mos), $200,000 Loss; Market Cap, $187.26 million; Shares Outstanding, 18.9 million.
* Linder’s View: “Galleon is only about a year old and it went from nothing to about 2,500 boe (barrels of oil equivalent) per day. The company has added to its inventory and it has about 80 locations to drill over the next 15 months. The company has the third-largest land position in the Peace River Arch area. I think it’s a potential double (in share price) from here.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Low (relative to oil and gas sector).
* Web Watch: www.galleonenergy.com
SECOND STAR
* Antrim Energy (TSX:AEN)
* Recent Price: $2.23.
* 52-Week Range: $0.85-$2.34.
* Linder’s 12-Month Speculative Target: $10 (the target price factors in a successful result for the company’s Australian well, currently being drilled).
* Snapshot: Antrim is a global oil and gas company that features production from its properties in Argentina and numerous exploration plays, including key projects in Australia and the United Kingdom.
* CEO: Stephen Greer.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $5.9 million; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mos), $1.3 million Loss; Market Cap, $70.03 million; Shares Outstanding, 31.04 million.
* Linder’s View: “Antrim is about to spud a well (WA-306-P) in Australia (the company has a 32.5-per-cent interest in that well at Australia’s Northwest Shelf). Potentially, this well could contain 150 million barrels of oil, so I think just the drilling momentum can push this stock up significantly. Because this whole area is surrounded by significant hydrocarbon pools of oil and natural gas, combined with the fact that there have been lots of discoveries in the area, I would suggest that the probability of success for this well (for oil or natural gas) is very high, say 70 or maybe even 80 per cent. If they find natural gas, the stock may go up $2 or $3. If they find oil, it could go up $10 to $15.
“Since they’re only paying for less than 20 per cent of the well (drilling costs), the risk/reward ratio is very good. If they don’t hit, the stock would probably weaken to about $1.50 because they have some nice production in Argentina, some very exciting development plays in the North Sea, zero debt and lots of cash in the bank.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: High.
* Web Watch: www.antrimenergy.com
THIRD Star
* Winstar Resources (TSX:WRL)
* Recent Price: $0.74.
* 52-Week Range: $0.72-$1.40.
* Linder’s 12-Month Target: $1.25.
* Snapshot: Winstar is a junior oil and gas company focused on properties in Alberta and British Columbia. The company is the product of a 2003 acquisition of private company Warwick Energy.
* CEO: David Monachello.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $5.8 million; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mos), $1 million Loss; Market Cap, $22.57 million; Shares Outstanding, 30.50 million.
* Linder’s View: “Winstar has had significant production development delays that have negatively affected production but I think the company has the potential to double its production between now and year end with the wells they have on the plate. The company has a very strong land position as a result of a major farm-in deal and drilling on that land should have a very positive impact over the next 18 to 24 months.”
* Linder’s Risk Rating: Low.
* Web Watch: www.winstar.ca
Linder’s EDGE Record (past 12 mos): -19 per cent. Best Pick: Galleon Energy (GO.A-TSXV) +27.1 per cent. Worst Pick: Milagro Resources (MIG-TSX) -69.3 per cent.
Disclosure: Linder is restricted from personally trading shares within the DeltaOne Energy Fund in which the featured stocks are held.






