(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top three stock picks of some of Canada's most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Martin Ferguson is a partner with Mawer Investment Management and manages the Mawer New Canada Fund. He is also on the management team for the Mawer Canadian Equity Fund.
Fund Form: The Mawer New Canada Fund gained approximately 29.3 per cent in 2004 and has a five-year annualized compound return of 22.9 per cent, compared to the small-cap group average of 11.9 per cent.
Management Expense Ratio: 1.46 per cent.
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| Ferguson |
Ferguson's 2005 Perspective: "I believe the market will continue to move up but with unexciting returns. I think that small-cap stocks can do as well as the overall market with probable returns of six to seven per cent.
"Keys to watch for are whether the U.S. consumer holds in (consumer spending) and the performance of the U.S. dollar. I don't believe the U.S. dollar will fall through the floor but I believe it will be under further pressure throughout . . . 2005. To guard against a falling dollar, you have to be careful of Canadian companies that export to the U.S. or those that compete with American companies, especially those that are levered to costs in Canadian dollars and revenues in U.S. dollars. I do have some exposure to those companies but I have managed them out."
First Star
* ProspEx Resources (TSX:PSX)
* Recent Price: $3.30.
* 52-Week Range: $2.95-$3.67.
* Snapshot: ProspEx was formed in October as a spinoff from Esprit Exploration when the latter company converted into an income trust (as Esprit Energy Trust). ProspEx is a junior oil and gas company focused on natural gas from properties in Alberta.
* CEO: John Rossall.
* Head Office: Calgary.
* Vital Stats: Revenue/ Earnings, N/A; Market Cap, $155.47 million; Shares Outstanding, 47.11 million.
* Ferguson's View: "Many of the exploration spinoffs from companies that form income trusts have the advantage of being an exploration company with pre-purchased land positions. ProspEx, as a spinoff from the former Esprit Energy, has good development properties and good exploration properties."
* Ferguson's Risk Rating: High.
* Web Watch: www.psx.ca
Second Star
* Steeplejack Industrial Group (TSX:SID)
* Recent Price: $3.99.
* 52-Week Range: $2.51-$5.30.
* Snapshot: Steeplejack, through its subsidiaries, provides scaffolding, insulation, asbestos abatement and general maintenance services to major industrial installations, mainly in Western Canada.
* CEO: Pat Ross.
* Head Office: Edmonton.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 8.5; Revenue (last 12 mos), $71.6 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 20.7 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $3.7 million; 5-Yr Earnings Growth, 36 per cent; Market Cap, $30.88 million; Shares Outstanding, 7.74 million.
* Ferguson's View: "This company has very good management and good positioning within their small niche. They're a leader in the regional and municipal market for scaffolding. It's also a company coming into its own by starting to get larger contracts and work at larger facilities. They're also starting to get ongoing revenue from some projects rather than one-time revenue."
* Ferguson's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web Watch: www.steeplejack.ca
Third Star
* Transat A.T. (TSX:TRZ)
* Recent Price: $24.10.
* 52-Week Range: $9.47-$26.31.
* Snapshot: Transat is a holiday travel services company that organizes and distributes vacation packages through tour operators, airlines and hotels.
* CEO: Jean-Marc Eustache.
* Head Office: Montreal.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 7.6; Revenue (last 12 mos), $2.1 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 5.1 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $107.7 million; Market Cap, $774.67 million; Shares Outstanding, 32.14 million.
* Ferguson's View: "This company should benefit from a stronger Canadian dollar. People are buying up tour packages where the costs are in U.S. dollars. Transat has been cutting costs and has an immense amount of cash on their balance sheet. With that cash, they may be paying a special dividend, doing a share buyback, acquisitions or some combination of that.
"The risk for a company like this is in something unexpected happening that deters people from travelling such as terrorism or a SARS scare."
* Ferguson's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web Watch: www.transat.com
Ferguson's 2004 Edge Record: +22.2 per cent.
Best Pick: Russel Metals (TSX:RUS) +68.7 per cent. Worst Pick: ShawCor (TSX:SCL.MR.B) -23.2 per cent. Disclosure: Mawer partners are restricted from owning shares in equities held in the company's funds but may own shares in the funds.







