(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top stock picks of some of Canada’s most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Mal Spooner is CEO and portfolio manager of Mavrix Investment Management.
The Toronto-based firm (www.mavrixfunds.com) manages a series of 17 funds. It became a publicly traded company in April on the TSX (MVX).
Fund Form: The hottest of Mavrix funds in the past 12 months has been the Mavrix Small Cap Fund, which has returned 29.7 per cent. All but one of the funds – the Mavrix Growth Fund, down 3.9 per cent – boasts a positive return over the past year.
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| Mal Spooner |
Spooner’s Perspective: “I think the rising inventory levels for crude oil bode well for a potential decline in the oil price over the next three to six months . . . So with interest rates continuing at low levels and the potential for energy prices drifting down, that bodes well for stock markets overall.
“Predicting lower oil prices is a wild card, but it’s those wild cards that make or lose you money. I’ve found it’s always more sensible to behave like George Costanza on Seinfeld and do the opposite.
“Everybody loves oil stocks and believes crude prices are going to stay high forever. And it’s sort of a win-win proposition if you stick your neck out a bit because there’s not much downside betting against oil prices anyway, with oil stocks at such high levels.
“I think the most oversold area is in the technology sector and I’m also seeing some opportunities in the resource (mining) sector.”
FIRST STAR
* ATI Technologies (TSX:ATY)
* Recent Price: $21.23.
* 52-Week Range: $17.52-$25.38.
* Spooner’s 12-Month Target Price: $25.
* Snapshot: ATI is a supplier of graphics, video and multimedia solutions for desktop personal computers, mobile computing, digital TV, cellphones and other applications.
* CEO: David Orton.
* Head Office: Markham, Ont.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 22.5; Revenue (last 12 mos), $2.5 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 2.9 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $227.7 million; Market Cap, $5.23 billion; Shares Outstanding, 246.42 million.
* Spooner’s View: “This is one of my favourite technology names for a couple of reasons. Most technology stocks like this behave more like retail stocks these days because so much of their sales are dependent on seasonal shopping patterns of consumers. With ATI being a leader in the North American digital TV market and obviously well-positioned in the personal computer marketplace, and consumers expected to spend more in the holiday season on these things, ATI will benefit.
“When all the ducks are lined up for this company, it typically trades as high as two-and-a-half times (per-share) revenue. That should put the stock somewhere in the $30 range, eventually.”
* Web Watch: www.atitech.ca
* Spooner’s Risk Rating: High.
SECOND STAR
* LionOre Mining International (LIM-TSX)
* Recent Price: $6.51.
* 52-Week Range: $5-$8.55.
* Spooner’s 12-Month Target Price: $8.
* Snapshot: LionOre is a nickel producer with key mines in Australia and Botswana. The company also produces gold from an Australian mine.
* CEO: Colin Steyn.
* Head Office: Toronto.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 11.9; Revenue (last 12 mos), $498.7 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 70.8 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $104.2 million; Market Cap, $1.27 billion; Shares Outstanding, 195.11 million.
* Spooner’s View: “I believe resources continue to be a fairly exciting place. Due to a fairly chronic shortage of nickel worldwide as we look ahead for the next few years, I prefer to play a nickel producer that has a growth profile. And LionOre is the one I like.
“They also have a new process by which they extract nickel from ore and the byproducts include copper and cobalt. The prices for all these products continue to be very strong and the products themselves are in short supply, largely due to very strong demand from Asia.”
* Web Watch: www.lionore.com
* Spooner’s Risk Rating: High.
THIRD STAR
* Norbord (NBD-TSX)
* Recent Price: $12.45.
* 52-Week Range: $7.42-$15.50.
* Spooner’s 12-Month Target Price: $15.
* Snapshot: Norbord is an international producer of wood panels with 16 mills spanning Canada, the U.S. and Europe. The company also produces specialty paper.
* CEO: Barrie Shineton.
* Head Office: Toronto.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 4.3; Revenue (last 12 mos), $3 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 2.5 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $437 million; 5-Yr Earnings Growth, 0.2 per cent; Market Cap, $1.87 billion; Shares Outstanding, 150.53 million.
* Spooner’s View: “This company has recently been in the news because Brascan Corporation (BNN.A-TSX) sold 38 million of their shares in Norbord.
“Brascan continues to hold about 17 per cent of the company. But now that it no longer has a controlling interest, Norbord becomes a potential takeover target.
“We’ve seen surprisingly robust housing figures for both Canada and the U.S. and the price of OSB (oriented strand board) is extremely good. The best thing is that there’s really no new capacity coming onstream for OSB over the next year or two.
“Thanks to the hurricanes and a vibrant housing market, it’s unlikely that those OSB prices are going to come off soon. That makes the outlook for earnings at Norbord exceptional and the stock price overshot on the downside.”
* Web Watch: www.norbord.com
* Spooner’s Risk Rating: High.
Spooner’s EDGE Record: +7.9 per cent. Best Pick: Ipsco (TSX:IPS) +34.9 per cent. Worst Pick: Zarlink Semiconductor (TSX:ZL) -27.6 per cent.
Disclosure: Spooner personally owns shares in the funds in which the featured stocks are held.







