(Business Edge columnist Gyle Konotopetz regularly profiles the top stock picks of some of Canada's most accomplished investment pros.)
FEATURED PRO: Jean-Francois Tardif is a portfolio manager with Sprott Asset Management (www.sprott.com) and lead manager of the Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund.
Fund Form: The Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund has a one-year return of 41.2 per cent compared to the group average of 15.1 per cent.
Management Expense Ratio: Two per cent (plus performance fees).
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| Jean-Francois Tardif |
Tardif's Perspective: "I don't know if the recent correction is finished, but I'm preparing a list of stocks to buy if we see a bottom. If there's another wave of weakness, then I think it (correction) is done after that. We still believe there will be a recession in the U.S. and probably because of that there would also be a slowdown in China. Also, because interest rates are being raised all around the world by various central banks, it's very likely that you'll see a slowdown of world growth in the latter part of '06 and '07. If that happens, there's a good chance it will adversely affect base metals commodity prices and it could even affect oil (price) in the short term. In the long term, we're still extremely bullish on energy because there's a supply problem."
First Star
* Commercial Solutions (TSX:CSA)
* Recent Price: $8.35.
* 52-Week Range: $2.90-$8.47.
* Snapshot: Commercial Solutions is an independent industrial distributor that operates through 24 service centres in Canada, mainly Western Canada. The company operates in two segments - industrial supplies and oilfield parts and supplies.
* CEO: Jim Barker.
* Head Office: Edmonton.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/ Earnings Ratio, 21.4; Revenue (last 12 mos), $118.8 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 70.6 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $5.9 million; Market Cap, $121.9 million; Shares Outstanding, 14.6.
* Tardif's View: "I think this company is going to make 60 cents in earnings (per share) this year and 80 cents in earnings (per share) next year. I also think there's a good chance that they will convert to an income trust. So if they convert to a trust and make something like $1.10 in pre-tax earnings (per share) next year, the stock could potentially go to $11, $12 or $13. It's not a dirt-cheap stock, but I've been buying more shares recently. There's not much capital required to run their business, which means very high return on equity and a high level of cashflow. This is a play on the very strong Western economy and construction boom. They've also been very good at acquiring other tiny businesses."
* Tardif's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web Watch: www.commercialsolutions.ca
Second Star
* Genivar Income Fund (TSX:GNV.UN)
* Recent Price: $10.74.
* 52-Week Range: $10.31-$11.22.
* Snapshot: Genivar is a Canadian engineering services firm, providing private and public-sector clients with consulting services, including planning, design and construction. It has offices in Canada, the Caribbean and Africa.
* CEO: Pierre Shoiry.
* Head Office: Montreal.
* Vital Stats: Market Cap, $118.4 million; Shares Outstanding, 11 million (no other financial numbers available as company went public in June).
* Tardif's View: "The infrastructure in Quebec and Ontario is in a bad state, so there will be a huge amount of money reinvested and this company will benefit. There is also a lot of mining in Quebec and Ontario, and Genivar is able to provide engineering for mining projects. This company has been growing year after year and it's extremely well managed. Furthermore, all the employees and managers are very well tied to the business because they own shares and if they leave they are penalized because then they would be forced to sell their shares at a discount. Now that it's a public company, it will probably allow them to grow faster by acquiring private companies at a deep discount to where they're trading. I expect this company to grow at a very good rate and I expect the yield should grow by about 10 per cent a year for many years to come. I bought the IPO (initial public offering at $10) and I bought more shares recently."
* Tardif's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web watch: www.genivar.com
Third Star
* Tim Hortons (TSX:THI)
* Recent Price: $28.35.
* 52-Week Range: $28.25-$37.99.
* Snapshot: Tim Hortons is a quick-service restaurant chain specializing in coffee, baked goods and lunches.
* CEO: Paul House.
* Head Office: Oakville, Ont.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 23.8; Revenue (last 12 mos), $1.5 billion; Earnings (last 12 mos), $191.1 million; Market Cap, $5.48 billion; Shares Outstanding, 193.3 million.
* Tardif's View: "Everybody was so excited about the IPO (initial public offering in March) and the stock traded as high as $37.99 on its first day of trading. We bought the IPO at $27 and I sold half our shares at the open at about $36. Now that people have forgotten about it, I think it's a good time to go back into it. They're going to make about $1.40 (per share in earnings) next year which is about 20 times (price/earnings ratio). This is one of the best consumer companies you can buy in Canada and it has a lot of growth potential. They're not just growing by adding more stores. They also sell more from their current stores each year through price inflation, increased traffic and increased spending. They're probably going to grow their earnings by between 15 and 20 per cent every year for the next five years. They also have a very cheap average ticket (bill) with an average of about $3, so even if there's a recession, people will cut something else before cutting their spending at Tim Hortons."
* Tardif's Risk Rating: Low.
* Web Watch: www.timhortons.com
Tardif's Edge Record (last 12 mos): +9.9 per cent. Best Pick: Tournigan Gold (TSXV:TVC) +93.3 per cent. Worst Pick: Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) -40.3 per cent.
Disclosure: Tardif owns shares in the Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund in which the featured stocks are held.
(This feature is provided for information purposes. Investors are advised to do their own research or consult a qualified investment professional before making investment decisions.)
(Gyle Konotopetz can be reached at gyle@businessedge.ca)







