The supply of skilled employees could deteriorate even further over the next decade if steps aren’t taken to attract, train and retain workers, warn TD economists in a report, Canada’s Talent Deficit, released last week.
“Over the next decade, the economy is facing the two-pronged challenge of satisfying rapid growth in demand for workers possessing technical skills and baby boomers pondering early retirement,” says Don Drummond, senior vice-president and chief economist, TD Bank Financial Group.
The report, by Drummond and senior economist Derek Burleton, concedes that labour shortages appear to be easing in 2001 due to this year’s slowdown, especially in the high-tech sector.
However, the continued low unemployment rate, currently 7.2 per cent, is a sign of continuing tightness in the labour market.
Apart from cyclical pressures, the report identifies certain structural influences that have contributed to shortfalls of skilled workers.
Examples include the lack of technologically skilled workers and the current shortages of highly trained doctors, nurses and teachers, reflecting cutbacks in government spending.
The problem threatens to worsen as baby boomers – about one-third of Canada’s population – approach retirement or take early retirement, suggesting that both governments and businesses will face the labour squeeze even sooner, warns the report.
Since the demographics can be projected with considerable certainty, the private sector could take a leadership role, encouraging older workers to stay in the labor force by establishing flexible work arrangements and tailor-made compensation packages.
It also raises the question whether such things as mandatory retirement and age of entitlement to public pensions should be reconsidered, says Drummond.
In addition, TD economists recommend a greater focus on raising the average skill set of Canadian workers through education and training. Immigration can also play a role in boosting the labor supply.
Drummond warns that “the bottom line is that the federal government cannot go it alone on these issues, given that education and training are areas of provincial responsibility.”
Meanwhile, labour force statistics revealed that more than one-third of the Canadians who became employed in the last year found their jobs in Alberta. The province’s workforce grew by 51,500 from August 2000 to August 2001, while the national workforce grew by 151,500.
Alberta’s unemployment rate in August was the lowest of any province in Canada at 4.3 per cent.
Clint Dunford, minister of Alberta Human Resources and Employment, said: “We have about 11 per cent of the nation’s working population and more than 30 per cent of Canada’s workforce growth.”
Industries with the biggest job gains over the year were mining and oil and gas extraction, professional, scientific and technical services and educational services.
