Market pundits with short memories and vivid imaginations have been logging extra time lately, desperately drawing comparisons of the current tech bull market to the wild ride of the late 1990s.
Of course, most comparisons to the incomparable raging tech bull that ended in 2000 are ludicrous.
One thing hasn’t changed. Nortel Networks is still the undisputed heavyweight champion of the Canadian tech market as was proven by its recent 19-per-cent romp on news of a deal with Verizon Communications that would have warranted a mere shrug from investors in the depths of the bear market a year or two ago.
Although Nortel (NT-TSX) has more than doubled over the past year, let’s put that into proper perspective. At $7.83, the stock is down 94 per cent from its all-time high of $123.10 in June of 2000, meaning that those who piled into those bargain $100 shares (at least according to the analysts) aren’t quite in a mood yet for popping champagne corks.
The TSX information technology index (TTTK-I) is up a stunning 64 per cent in the past year, but largely on the strength of a few wizened thoroughbreds like Nortel, Research In Motion (RIM-TSX) and Sierra Wireless (SW-TSX).
This tech party has been a black-tie affair, mainly starring the high rollers of the tech game.
Nope, this is not 1999.
If you think this is 1999 all over again, drop by the Calgary office of Axia NetMedia (AXX-TSX) and try to convince CEO Art Price about this technology boom.
While many of the marquee tech stocks have been doubling in the past, Axia shares are down 41 per cent and, at 50 cents, a far cry from a peak of $18 during the last tech boom.
If you think this is 1999 all over again, see how the folks at Cell-Loc are enjoying the ride.
This Calgary high flier of the tech bubble, once an $80 stock as investors feverishly bought into the company’s cell-location technology, is now masquerading as an oil and gas company, Capitol Energy Resources, on the TSX Venture.
If you think this is 1999 all over again, revisit Calgary’s one-time growth story, Electronics Manufacturing Group.
EMG, which once traded as high as $8.50, changed its name and moved east but still couldn’t stop the bleeding.
As Adeptron Technologies (ATQ-TSX), the company once mentioned in the same breath as electronics manufacturing giant Celestica (CLS-TSX) trades at 34.5 cents.
If you think this is 1999, try calling up the ticker symbol for one-time Calgary smart-card upstart EarlyRain. It’s out of action like many of the penny techs that sprang up in the late 1990s.
Wi-Lan, once the darling of the Calgary techs, has doubled over the past year but, at $4.27, this wireless play, although seemingly turning the corner towards profitability, is still a far cry from its $94 peak four years ago.
The beauty of the current tech bull is that it has provided investors with a clear picture by separating the contenders from the pretenders.
If you’re saddled with a tech stock that hasn’t participated in this uptrend, it may be time to swallow your pride and confess it’s a dog.
At this tech party, not everybody gets in. There’s a ruthless bouncer at the door.
And if you don’t have earnings to pitch, your story had better be a good one if you expect to get a fair shake from investors.
Although some tech valuations are comparable to those of the last bull run (i.e. Sierra Wireless trading at a price/earnings ratio of 170), most of the Canadian techs that have been on fire in the past year such as Nortel, RIM, ATI Technologies and Tundra Semiconductor are being rewarded for making significant strides financially and taking advantage of increased spending in technology.
Nope, a catchy name, a spiffy website and a smooth-talking chief executive just doesn’t cut it anymore.
* TWO YEARS AGO IN THE EDGE: Seemingly oblivious to the emergence of a bear market, Toronto portfolio manager Mal Spooner was still pounding the table on tech, touting a soon-to-be disaster, Electronics Manufacturing Group.
“Ten dollars - in no time!” boomed Spooner of YMG Capital Management when asked for a target price (the stock then was trading at $4.50).
YMG has since changed its name to Mavrix Fund Management and Spooner has come back with a vengeance, boasting one of the hottest funds in Canada with the Mavrix Explorer Fund. Weighted in gold, metals and forest products stocks, the Explorer has returned 68.9 per cent in the past year.
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HOT STOCK: RESVERLOGIX
RVX-TSXV $2.20
Up $1.07 (+98.7%) on 29,200 shares (for week ending Jan. 9).
Resverlogix, stuck in the $1-$1.20 range for months, busted loose with an enormous two-day run to a 52-week high, signalling that news may be on the way. The Calgary-based biotech play did issue news prior to the run that may have triggered the move. The company said pharmaceutical giant Pfizer's intent to acquire Esperion validates its cholesterol research that, like Esperion, is based on HDL (high-density lipoprotein) technology.
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COLD STOCK: STELCO INC.
STE.A-TSX $1.59
Down 90 cents (-36.1%) on 12.1 million shares (for week ending Jan. 9).
Shares in Hamilton-based Stelco were hammered as steely eyed investors focused on Canadian steel industry woes and the failed restructuring of another struggling Canadian company, Slater Steel, which has been in bankruptcy protection since June.
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