The old grey mare ain’t what she used to be. Or, to put it bluntly, this stock market is quite willing to take the old nag out to pasture permanently.
That investing climate was never more apparent than in the market’s response to U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s recent half-per-cent interest rate cut.
While the major markets responded with robust gains on back-to-back days, a year of market chaos seems to be creating a new breed of sophisticated investor.
In this horse race, investors aren’t betting the grey nag off the board on a wild hunch. Now, it’s all about picking thoroughbreds — companies that are leaders in their sectors with proven form charts, strong earnings, strong cash flow and strong management.
Those are the companies that boosted the markets last week.
The market geniuses, like bulls in a china shop, have been scrambling to be the first to call a market bottom, but even a market bottom won’t rouse some of the sleepy plough horses.
The big winners recently have been the real companies on the TSE, such as tech stalwarts Sierra Wireless, JDS Uniphase and Celestica, which showed weekly gains of 30 per cent each within two days of the rate cut.
Even Nortel, the fibre-optics leader, was up marginally on the week despite issuing a cloudy forecast and announcing another 5,000 layoffs.
There were odd exceptions to that rule, such as Calgary-based Wi-LAN. The company that has yet to show a profit gained 40 per cent for the week, but was rallying from a 95-per-cent deficit in just over a year and was buoyed by positive news.
There was still some old-fashioned irrational exuberance but, in most cases, they were classic dead-cat bounces.
Calgary-based Cell-Loc, for instance, responded to the rate cut with a mad dash from $2.15-$2.95, but this nag faded badly down the stretch, closing the week at $2.25 for a modest weekly gain of seven per cent.
Wizened punters were also wary of other unproven Alberta-based tech companies such as Axia NetMedia, TraceAbility Solutions (formerly Compusoft Canada) and Brocker Technologies.
The new rallying cry from investors?
Show us the earnings.
One reader has noticed that the likes of Cell-Loc, Axia, TraceAbility and Brocker have been bogging down the Traders’ Edge portfolio since last fall. However, this week our portfolio reports a decent gain of three per cent.
We’ve taken a 15-per-cent profit on DataWave Systems, a Canadian Venture Exchange penny stock that spiked 36 per cent last week, and replaced it with what appears to be an over-sold thoroughbred from the health-care stable — MDS Inc.
ANALYSTS' THREE STARS
Peter Linder, oil and gas analyst with Research Capital, is dancing with the one that brung him — natural gas-powered plays.
Riding the wave of a 49-per-cent gain with Anderson Exploration, Bonavista Petroleum and Ketch Energy six months ago, Linder has strong-buy recommendations on three TSE juniors — Promax Energy (PMY), Devlan Exploration (DXI) and Gauntlet Energy (GAU). Promax is a 100-per-cent natural-gas play which traded recently at $1.66 with a year range of $1.32-$1.70. Linder calls it a low-risk play with a 12-month target of $3.50.
“They should take production from the current eight million cubic feet per day to close to 30 million cubic feet per day by year end, and close to 60 million cubic feet per day by the end of next year,” he says.
Linder’s target for Devlan is $5 (recent price, $3.38; year range, $2.50-$3.50).
“They have a major program in the Northwest Territories which, if successful, would see the share price towards $10 by next winter.”
Gauntlet has tripled in the past four months to $5.70 (year range, .75-$5.95) but Linder’s target is $8.50 on the strength of a “high-impact” program in the Hamburg area in northwestern Alberta.
Linder’s record: October picks up 49 per cent (Anderson Exploration +17 per cent, Bonavista Petroleum +20 per cent, Ketch Energy +111 per cent).
* CHEERS: To Greenspan for delivering in the clutch with a shocking half-percentage point cut after being jeered in this space last week for not being aggressive enough.
* JEERS: To CEOs who lay off thousands of workers at a time without taking a pay cut themselves. Hello, John Roth.
HOT STOCK: Wi-LAN
WIN-TSE $8.65
Up $2.46 (-39.7%) on 1,714,000 shares (for week ending April 26).
Most tech stocks were on fire, ignited by Alan Greenspan's rate cut, but nothing was hotter than Wi-LAN, which has now doubled in the past month. After Greenspan kick-started the markets with a 50-point Federal Reserve rate cut, Calgary-based Wi-LAN doubled its pleasure with timely news that the Federal Communications Commission had certified one of its broadband wireless products.
COLD STOCK: Cytovax Biotechnologies
CXB.A-TSE $4.05
Down 95 cents (-23.5%) on 200 shares (for week ending April 26).
There was much fanfare when Edmonton-based Cytovax made its debut on the stock market with a $6 initial public offering in February, but now it can't get any attention as it tanks on ridiculously low volume. The company is developing products to fight antibiotic-resistant superbugs, but has been having trouble making headlines in Edmonton lately. If they had only been fighting the Dallas Stars . . .






