FEATURED PRO: Gene Vollendorf is president and portfolio manager of Savoy Capital Management (www.savoycapital.com).
The Calgary firm manages the Gladiator LP Fund, a long/short hedge fund.
Fund Form: The Gladiator LP Fund has a four-year return of 27.7 per cent (through September).
Management Expense Ratio: 1.5 per cent (plus incentives).
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| Gene Vollendorf |
Vollendorf's Perspective: "The TSX (S&P/TSX Composite index) is overheated in the short term and we believe the macro- economic picture is cloudy in the short term. The TSX has recently hit an all-time high, driven by the surge in the oil index. Profit margins are at a 15-year high. The U.S. yield curve is dangerously close to inverting, signalling that a recession is looming. Greenspan (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan) continues to raise interest rates in an attempt to cool off the housing sector, but he could inadvertently cool U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth. Furthermore, commodity prices are finally influencing the American consumer.
"Caution is warranted in the next six months as global GDP growth wanes and Canadian EPS (earnings per share) growth approaches peak levels."
First Star
* Coastal Contacts Inc. (TSXV:COA)
* Recent Price: $2.06.
* 52-Week Range: $0.60-$2.35.
* Snapshot: Coastal Contacts is a direct-to'-consumer distributor of replacement contact lenses with distribution hubs in North America and Europe.
* CEO: Roger Hardy.
* Head Office: Vancouver.
* Vital Stats: Current Price/Earnings Ratio, 68.7; Revenue (last 12 mos), $45.6 million; Earnings (last 12 mos), $800,000; Market Cap, $102.6 million; Shares Outstanding, 49.8 million.
* Vollendorf's View: "There are three key strengths to their business model. Due to their centralized direct-to-consumer distribution centre, they are the low-cost producer providing customers with a 70-per-cent cost advantage over traditional retailers and 20-per-cent advantage over other direct-to-consumer distributors. Second, their marketing expertise allows them to acquire customers cost effectively in large volume. Finally, they have a scalable, profitable model. Reorders drive profits. The company is currently trading at 19 times 2006 price/earnings and is expected to double its earnings in 2006. We believe an earnings per share of 12 cents in 2006 is achievable, equating to a $3 stock price."
* Vollendorf's Risk Rating: High.
* Web Watch: www.coastalcontacts.com
Second Star
* Rogers Communications (TSX:RCI.NV.B)
* Recent Price: $47.30.
* 52-Week Range: $27.01-$48.74.
* Snapshot: Rogers provides cable and wireless telecommunications services, radio and television broadcasting, high-speed Internet access and other communications services.
* CEO: Ted Rogers.
* Head Office: Toronto.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $6.7 billion; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 12.3 per cent; Earnings (last 12 mos), $23.6 million; Market Cap, $13.16 billion; Shares Outstanding, 278.2 million.
* Vollendorf's View: "The Canadian wireless sector is significantly under-penetrated relative to global counterparts with an estimated 50-per-cent penetration compared to over 60 per cent in the U.S. and above 90 per cent in Europe. Rogers continues to exceed analyst expectations with a recent update on 2005 wireless subscriber guidance exceeding previous guidance in excess of 30 per cent. With approximately 60 per cent of operating profit currently coming from wireless, the company is the best investment vehicle to gain exposure to the under-penetrated and high-growth Canadian wireless market. Our current (12-month) target is $50."
* Vollendorf's Risk Rating: Medium.
* Web Watch: www.rogers.com
Third Star
* Steeplejack Industrial Group (TSX:SID)
* Recent Price: $6.05.
* 52-Week Range: $3.10-$8.10.
* Snapshot: Steeplejack provides industrial equipment, including scaffolding, insulation and asbestos services, to the maintenance and construction sectors.
* CEO: Pat Ross.
* Head Office: Edmonton.
* Vital Stats: Revenue (last 12 mos), $42.1 million; 5-Yr Revenue Growth, 12.4 per cent; Earnings/Loss (last 12 mos), $600,000 Loss; Market Cap, $49.56 million; Shares Outstanding, 8.2 million.
* Vollendorf's View: "Steeplejack is a pure play on the massive oilsands development projects in northern Alberta. The primary growth drivers over the next 12 months will be the Opti-Nexen and CNRL (Canadian Natural Resources) contracts. The CNRL project is estimated to last four years and could alone double Steeplejack's top line (revenue) as they are the sole recommended supplier on this project. This company is a long-term hold with the potential to double earnings over the next 30 months.
"We believe it can be a $10 stock long term."
* Vollendorf's Risk Rating: High.
* Web Watch: www.steeplejack.ca Vollendorf's Edge Record (past 12 mos): -9.2 per cent. Best Pick: Stoneham Drilling Trust (TSX:SDG.UN) +38.5 per cent. Worst Pick: RentCash (TSX:RCI) -48.6 per cent.
Disclosure: Vollendorf owns shares in the Gladiator Fund in which the featured stocks are held.
(This feature is provided for information purposes. Investors are advised to do their own research or consult a qualified investment professional before making investment decisions.)







