I just flew through all the pundit-blogs, scanning their prognostications for 2008 - and boy, are my arms tired.
Seriously, it's impossible to read everybody's guesswork, but there is a certain pattern discernable.
See if you can spot it in these examples: Apple is going to introduce an improved version of the iPhone, and get into a big battle with RIM. We might even see an Apple submicro computer with flash memory instead of hard disks.
Designer PCs will become hot, with special models for gamers, business IT nerds, teenage girls, even fashionistas who crave the jewel-encrusted Ego Lifestyle Tulip notebook at $5,000-$350,000, depending on ornamentation.
Google and Apple may or may not get into making and/or selling their own hardware, from smartphones to TVs to refrigerators.
What all these "trends" have in common is that the items discussed (except maybe the bejewelled laptops) will all be in the landfill, or some more eco-friendly place, in 10 years time. Sure, tools are important, but there must be some bigger issues happening in technology and the workplace.
There certainly are.
One is the multigenerational workplace. This is where you are going to find yourself working in the next few years, unless you run a tiny business on your own, or are going to retire soon.
I know that "managing the multigenerational workforce" is trendy because I now get hired to give a lot of speeches about it. My "cred" for these gigs is that I wrote my first computer program for fun in 1963 and for money in 1965.
On the other hand, I spend each July running Shad Valley, a live-in environment for 60 of the brightest high school students from across Canada. So I have seen my share of Generation Xs (born around 1963-1980) and Gen Ys (born 1981-1995).
Here's what I can tell you, at least about the high-performing end of the next working generation, who are the ones you'll want to hire anyway.The Gen Ys are indeed technology natives, who can set up your PVR or find the showtimes of a local movie theatre by instinct, without instructions or manuals. On the flip side, they can be quite emotionally needy, and seem to be piggishly demanding.
What do Gen Ys need to be happy? Work that's challenging but not too hard, frequent and regular feedback on their performance, task variety, flexible work schedules and a fun workplace, preferably with other Gen Ys.
Lest it seem that young workers are a demographic evil to be tolerated, it's worth noting that some firms have made great use of them. Proctor and Gamble, and Pearl Assurance have used younger employees to help senior execs get tech-savvy without embarrassment. Closer to home, companies that hire our Shad Valley students often put them to work showing oldsters how to make a webpage, start a blog or get into social networking.
In a recent article in the Springer journal AI & Society, Carol Baily of Kingston College (U.K.) explains that every generation has its strong points. "Generation X are independent and entrepreneurial," she writes. "They are used to challenging their environment and love work. Generation Y are an ideas generation, living in virtual realities, who enjoy working as team members."
In her article, Baily advises us to seek out the techno-wisdom of youth, but cautions that their strong technical skills are not matched by strong soft skills such as listening and communicating.
"It is possible that teaching skills are not developed, which would lead to difficulties in coaching anyone, let alone someone who has the (perceived and perhaps real) ability to fire you."
If the multigenerational issue is a major trend, the multicultural one follows close behind. The 2006 census of Canada shows that about one in five Canadians were born outside the country, and a survey by Statistics Canada found that nearly three-quarters (71 per cent) of immigrants who arrived in Canada from 1991 to 2001 rated at least one of their ancestral origins as important.
So, Canada is not the melting pot the U.S. claims to be and smart businesses will look for ways to turn ethnic diversity into an asset.
But please note that being diverse and multicultural doesn't equate to shipping work off to faraway places where it can be done for less. Air Canada seems to have learned that lesson, after having outsourced some of its phone support to Genpact, based in Gurgaon, India.
Customers generally hated the service and told the world about it in blogs. Lamented one writer: "Why is Air Canada outsourcing jobs to India? I mean these people haven't even heard of Goose Bay, let alone Postville, Labrador."
Air Canada's Western Canada spokeswoman Angela Mah confirms that the Genpact deal expired at the end of 2007, and a decision to not renew the contract was made. She promises a whole new suite of Air Canada computer systems, to be built in conjunction with Massachusetts-based ITA Software, will be rolled out in 2008.
Here are a few other Big Ideas that you probably won't see in the January flurry of tech predictions: • Conscious Machines: Nokia Research scientist Pentti Haikonen has mused about artificial personal assistants "that are more than digital diaries, ones that are more like trusted friends."
What would these "friends" do for us? Perhaps order the coffee at Starbucks - Apple has just been granted a patent to allow en route ordering of a double decaf skim milk latté while travelling to your favorite "FourBucks.”
Your iPhone could pay the bill and your drink would be sitting on the counter, emitting mating calls to its techno-buddy. If it works for coffeeshops, expect to see this technology in hair salons, auto-repair shops and Chinese takeout joints.
• Privacy Pushback: Amazingly, retail giant Winners parent TJX Corp. survived its huge 2005 privacy exposure quite nicely. But, hey, failure to protect government files did cost a senior U.K. government bureaucrat his job in 2007.
Facebook users, who are starting to define the ethical high and low ground, rose up to defend their privacy.
The protest group "students against facebook news feeds" attracted 700,000 members, and Facebook's Beacon advertising program drew so many complaints that it was changed from "opt out" to "opt in."
• Wearable Computers: You can already get sports clothing with intelligent devices such as in-fleece heating, heart monitoring sports bras and even avalanche detection, according to an article in AI & Society.
This may even help the ultimate fashion disaster, the IT geek. You know, the one who sports a Bluetooth earpiece, dangling Blackberries and pagers, and has eyes glued to a GPS navigation system.
With wearable computing, these could all be combined into a single unit, say, a stylish plastic pocket protector.
(Tom Keenan is a professor at the University of Calgary and an expert on technology and its social implications. He can be reached at keenan@businessedge.ca)






