Despite a huge hunger among consumers and businesses for faster, more data-rich mobile network services, major uncertainties still exist for the rollout of third-generation wireless technology, says a marketing expert with German electronics giant Siemens.

Massive layoffs in the high-tech industry combined with continuing market uncertainty and downgrades of some mobile network companies have led Siemens to examine five “extreme” scenarios for the future of 3G, which is high-speed broadband mobility that incorporates graphics and video, large-volume data transfer, e-mail and Internet access.

“There is still an interest in 3G and developing the systems. But at the same time, the whole industry is laying personnel off. So it’s a question of prioritization – where to put the research and development effort,” said Josef Hartmann, director of marketing and portfolio design for Siemens AG.

Hartmann was one of several keynote speakers at the recent Wireless 2002 conference held in Calgary. The 14th annual event, sponsored in part by research consortium TRLabs, brought together more than 200 international researchers and engineers from companies such as Nortel and Texas Instruments to discuss the latest developments in wireless technology.

Conference organizer George Squires said the benefits of 3G wireless are just beginning to be harnessed, and Alberta and Canadian firms are well positioned in the market.

“Canada is a global force in wireless communication – there’s absolutely no doubt about it,” said Squires, past vice-president of research and technology at TRLabs.

“And we play in all the fields – the standards in Europe and the Far East, and other emerging standards. We have to be in all those markets – if you’re in this business, you’re worldwide.”

Hartmann said he believes the future is still bright for 3G, but noted the research focus has shifted away from the distant future and even-faster fourth generation
concepts to more practical, near-term applications – including ensuring the evolving technology is reliable, cost-efficient and universally accessible.

At the conference, he outlined five potential outcomes for the international 3G wireless market in the coming years, which include:

* A stable market, but one that lacks conviction. Minor consolidations occur within the industry, with mobile
network operators (MNOs) focusing on cash flow over innovation.
* Huge consolidation may force many MNOs to exit the market, while content providers merge with service providers. Customers are wooed by rich interactive media choices.
* The market splits into low-cost and high-end services.
The low-cost sector offers prepaid-only offerings to customers, but no rich data services, while high-end MNOs target more sophisticated services to wealthy individuals and corporations. “I think this scenario is quite realistic,” said Hartmann.
* The U.S. and China take the lead in developing 3G, while European MNOs stagnate due to environmental or financial pressures. China dominates the 3G equipment market, mainly because it has little wired infrastructure compared with North America and less of current-generation wireless than Europe.
* Self-organizing WLANs (wireless local area networks) collectives create free, high-speed IP access in major cities. Chaos rules, and cable TV operators jump into the 3G market. MNOs consolidate as their market shrinks. “These five extreme scenarios open up a space where the future might develop,” said Hartmann, adding the possibilities will help the industry make decisions in an uncertain environment.

“The real future will fall somewhere in between.”

Also during the conference, South Korean electronics giant Samsung announced a three-year research and development partnership with TRLabs, a consortium of government, industry and university sponsors that conducts applied research in telecommunications.