As Canada goes through a winter of economic woes, the blooms are starting to fall from the rose-coloured glasses of rookie realtors.
"The expectation is that people will be getting out" of the home-selling business, says Beth Crosbie, who heads a Canadian Real Estate Association taskforce that is attempting to help younger realtors survive startup difficulties.
Crosbie says CREA had approximately 100,000 members last year and is expecting 97,000 this year, but is contemplating a contingency plan to handle a decline of 5,000 to 15,000 members.
While the full impact has not yet hit, the number of new licensees is starting to decline across the country.
In the past few years, newcomers entered the business in hope of capitalizing on a hot market. Now, with constant public focus on the recession, interest in a real estate career is cooling.
"We're definitely seeing some drop-off in (new licensees)," says Crosbie. "Most areas of the country aren't seeing numbers getting out in any big amount.
"However, we're all expecting it. That's only a matter of time.
"Particularly, western (real estate) boards that have been really heavily hit with price drops are budgeting in (lower) numbers."
The CREA taskforce is attempting to gather more information about the methods and challenges of new realtors and how they use social-networking technology, such as Facebook and YouTube, to reach customers.
"There's a recognition that our next-generation realtors operate on a very different level than we do," says Crosbie.
"They're far more into social networking and internet use. All of that is second nature to them ... They have a different set of expectations and how they deal with people and how they social-network.
"This is an effort to bring them in, because they're our future leaders, and we want to make sure that the association is providing them with the right tools and services for their style of work."
But, she adds, younger realtors may not suffer as much financially in today's tough market, because they have reduced expenses by using the internet more and paper less often.
CREA, which represents realtors across the country, does not track realtor exits and entries according to age and experience.
New licensees usually represent the best indication.
"In the last five years, we've seen unaccountable (high) numbers coming into the business," says Crosbie.
Many realtors have obtained their licences after retiring from, or reducing the amount of time they spend on, other careers.
Crosbie expects most departures will comprise young realtors who do not have the networks they need to develop sales and older people who are trying to supplement their income.
Many younger realtors don't understand the volume of work required to make a career successful, says Tanya Rocca, 30, a Burlington, Ont.-based realtor who teamed up with her sister Cathy, 36, when they both obtained their licences three years ago.
"The market that we're coming into is going to weed out a lot of what we coin as 'part-timers' or people who are just coming in because they see ... an easy, get-rich-quick potential," says Tanya, whose brother is also a realtor in Toronto.
Most new realtors, Tanya adds, last an average of six months because they don't understand being a realtor, an independent contractor, is like owning a business.
"The reality is, the (licensing) courses are just the beginning," she says. "It's a matter of developing a business. A lot of people don't have the persistence."
Kate Burkard, 29, a Vancouver-based realtor and co-owner of a boutique agency, Blu, says the market has totally changed since she entered the industry six years ago after working in the fine-dining service sector.
"It's tough," says Burkard. "It's a totally different game than when I first started. You've got to work a bit harder and learn a bit more about how it all works."
Burkard, a member of the nine-member CREA young-realtor taskforce, considers herself an exception to other newcomers in that she has co-owned an agency for about half of her career with Shawn Lee and Neal Uchida, who all have the same level of experience.
But some of her peers have not been so fortunate. Many realtors, she says, entered the business looking to strike it rich early, only to suffer.
"I know a bunch of offices have closed down. I know a lot of realtors are going to discount brokerage houses. It's a tough business if you've got overhead and you haven't closed anything in four or five months and you don't have any savings. It's an expensive job to be in if you're not selling," she says.
But Burkard, who specializes in selling lofts, does not see the downturn as a total turnoff. She predicts the bad times won't last much longer, and believes a slower market actually spells a "normalized" market.
"For any realtor, it's kind of a good thing when it's not as crazy," she says. "You can do your job, really, for what it is. It's stabilized, so it's a little bit healthier."
Veteran Calgary realtor Colin Sloan says he's doing well in this type of downturn, which he has seen before. He advises realtors to make sure that list prices are reasonable, buyers have the financial means to purchase a home, and both buyers and sellers are motivated.
"That means they have a definite reason to sell or a definite reason to buy," says Sloan.
Sloan suspects some Calgary realtors have returned to previous careers, while he has seen a few others retire by choice, not due to market conditions. But he has not yet noticed a large increase in realtors leaving the industry.
"In the last five years, because of the upward-trending market, there were a lot of new realtors who got into it," said Sloan. "Whether or not they stay, you'll find that out in the next year or two."
(Monte Stewart can be reached at monte@businessedge.ca)
